Is it possible?

So the Lok Sabha elections are going to happen next year. I guess it is time for some analysis to be done on what could be the strategy, adopted by the party in power, to save their seats. All the parties would already have started the process of deriving the strategies. As we all know, BJP is at the helm of affairs with the conglomerate of 16 other parties. It is perhaps the only party with the toughest task. The question that they would be asking themselves is – Should they go alone in the elections or with all their NDA partners? All parties would like to win maximum number of seats and grab power. But for BJP it is a matter of existence. And whether we like it or not BJP will do everything possible in their powers to ensure that they remain firmly seated to their positions in the government. Well – that holds true for all the parties trying to get majority in elections. As you will observe – I said – BJP will do everything possible. And their lies the catch!

Looking at the present situation it hardly seems that BJP will regain the number of seats that they presently have in the parliament. That the BJP is fed up with its coalition partners is a known fact. BJP is one party that never believed in compromises. But because the common minimum agenda of the NDA their hands are tied. In elections, getting a simple majority in the current political scenario is near to impossible for any single party, especially with so many regional parties also in the fray. For BJP it is becoming difficult by the day.

So what can they do to at least try to get that majority?

Before we get into the specifics I believe it is important to keep certain facts in mind.  Starting with the disadvantages for BJP – as it is in power for last six years:

Ø      It is the party in power – so the famous “incumbency factor” will play its part.

Ø      They have not had any major successes in any of the Assembly elections in last 3-4 years – except Gujarat. In fact they have had reverses in most of the Assembly elections held till date. That will play its part. Though it should be stressed here that the results of coming Assembly elections in 6-7 states will play a crucial part in deciding the look of the next Parliament elections.

Ø      Next, They have had too many scams and scandals in this term to answer for.

Ø      Irritatingly, the coalition partners are in too fragile a condition to fight alongside BJP

Ø      One of the most important factors that spoils the party is perhaps the loss of support in their own backyard – the northern belt of the country. States like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi, Rajasthan have all ceased to be the sole domain of BJP – which they were once. These are the places from where they used to get maximum seats till the last elections.

Ø      And last and perhaps THE biggest headache for them is – Atal Bihari Vajpayee has declared time and again that he will not fight next elections.

Again, before we go ahead – Here is an interesting step-by-step analysis of the rise and rise of BJP to its current state.

BJP as a party came into being in 1980 with initial members coming from the broken Janata Party and all die hard members of Bhartiya Jan Sangh. This party fought its first Parliamentary elections in 1984 and I will start from there:

Ø      1984: They opened their account! BJP won two seats in these elections.

Ø      1989: It went from 2 seats to 89 seats in 1989. A phenomenal jump I must say. This was achieved because of the huge wave of Hindutva and the nascent Ayodhya movement. They extended support to the Janata Dal party to form the new government. The only promise they wanted from the new PM – V. P. Singh – was that his government would not become a hindrance in BJP’s Ram Mandir movement in Ayodhya. This promise was too dangerous and was bound to be broken. Well finally it did break when L.K. Advani was arrested in Bihar (by the then Janata Dal Chief Minister – Lallo Prasad Yadav) during his now infamous Rath Yatra in 1990. All hell broke loose. BJP withdrew support from the Government and the government fell. Though Mandal Issue was also one of the reasons for the fall. Lot of human life was lost in the aftermath of L.K. Advani’s arrest across the country, especially in northern belt during this period. This led to the mid term poll in 1991.

Ø      1991: At this height of the Ram Mandir movement BJP increased its strength to 119 seats. As expected – 2/3^rd of the seats came from the state of Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat. Just for the record, Congress lost all its seats from Delhi. Such was the impact of the movement. In this mood of success – BJP I think made the biggest mistake they could have made. They helped in bringing the Babri Masjid down. Some call it the blackest day in the history of this country. How will the history judge them for this? Well time will tell. Having said that, BJP did gain one thing out of this incident: They were termed as a party, which delivers on its promise. A party with a difference! They had promised to demolish the Masjid and make a Ram Temple in its place. They almost did it – against all odds.

Ø      1996: BJP went into this election with huge confidence. The confidence showed in the results. They got 161 seats in this 13^th Lok Sahba election. Only Nazis in Germany had been able to get such amount of power in short span. Hitler’s Nazi party got 107 Seats in the Reichstag in 1930 and finally after 2-3 elections between 1930 and 1934 garnered 444 seats! It is also a fact that once they got the majority vote they never allowed another elections to be held – Till finally in 1948 when West Germany voted again in an election! Coming back to the present era, BJP with 161 seats did form the government with the help of like-minded parties. This experiment ironically lasted for just 13 days. (Interestingly even Nazis also supported the Socialist Party of Germany in 1930 from outside and finally ended up getting majority of seats in Reichstag by 1934!). BJP knew right from start that they wouldn’t be able to survive for long without a clear-cut majority in parliament. They also realized that mid-term polls would have to be held soon. To make matters worse they did not have any issue to fight an election incase a mid term poll was called for! They had already lost their biggest rider – the Ayodhya issue. In this moment of despair they coined a new phrase – a new mantra – National Pride! They very smartly linked National pride to testing of Nuclear Weapons. They then secretly made all the preparations for the nuclear tests to happen in 1996. Before they could do it – well – the government fell. A mid term poll was called for within a year.

Ø      1998: The mantra of National Pride with the usual Kashmir, Pakistan, Nuclear Weapons was the main topic of discussion for BJP. And behold – suddenly Hindutva was not one of their main poll planks! It was a remarkable change for BJP. Anyways, the result showed that BJP without the Hindutva issue does not have much appeal. They ended up getting only 179 seats. This was an increase of less than 20 seats from the last elections. Not impressive one would say. In all this, they did get a new status though. They were the second largest party in the Lok Sabha – just behind Congress. BJP put forth their stake to form the government in N-Delhi. A coalition that we now know by the famous name – NDA – was formed! The bargain was made. Each party would get a share in the cabinet depending on the number of seats they held in Lok Sabha. The result? For the first time in the history of Lok Sabha we had a mammoth Cabinet of around 50-55 Ministers!! Gone are the days when you would get a cabinet birth on your skills and experience. Now you get a cabinet birth on the number of seats that you control in the parliament! Some logic that! Anyways, BJP did not waste any time this time around. On May 11^th and 13^th they arranged for the Nuclear Weapons to be tested in Pokharan. Budha did smile after a gap of almost 20 years! World was seemingly shocked. A series of economic sanctions followed. BJP was unfazed though. Unfazed – till the thunder struck. This time the thunder was a beauty! Our own J. Jayalalitha delivered the head-blow and withdrew support from the government. The country was forced into another Midterm Poll. The fourth in that decade. BJP was running helter and scare looking for some issue to gather sympathy and support of the people. What followed was exactly what the doctor ordered and they did what most Nationalist party do – they went on a war. Remember the Kargil War? Remember also that the war was declared only after our JJ withdrew support and elections were supposed to be called for? Coincidence? My foot. Read Nazis History to understand what I am saying. Hitler was in the same position when he became the Chancellor. He had to win the elections of 1933/34. The biggest threat to Nazis was from Communists. Hitler with the help of his Minister for Interior Mr. Goering – burnt the Reichstag and blamed Communists for it. He arrested and killed almost all the communist leaders. Took charge of the polity and eventually declared election. That was the last election in Germany before WW-II. Ok – coming back to our own country. The war ended on an honorable note for India. And within 2 months of this war – elections were held. Just for the records – the militants and Pakistan’s Army occupied Kargil since August 1998. Shouldn’t we be curious as to why did our government sit on the intelligence report for almost 8-10 months? Huh! Anyways, Who cares to know that now?

Ø      1999: Riding high on the victory in Kargil war – BJP won 182 seats in this election. A rise of just 3 seats from the last time! Can you believe that? A party, which got us our land, back from enemy? Which got us an honorable victory in war? How can this be possible? Well – now you know why that war was necessary. Imagine the fate of this party if the war had not happened. We must give credit to BJP where it is due – it does know how to read the pulse of the public. If not for this war they would not only have lost the elections – there was a big danger of them being wiped out! BJP’s pride was dented. They got saved by their skin this time. They knew they have to survive the full tenure of the new term in the government to recoup and recharge. They needed some new issues, some new drama. For all this – they needed time. They had to wait. And wait – they did.

They have been able to survive the heat for almost 5 years now. Must say here that it did not seem possible at the outset that they would be able to survive this long. To their credit they have been able to do it by bribing the Members of Parliament with Cabinet Seats. Come to think of it – P.V. Narsimha Rao was called a cheat when he bribed 5 Members of Parliament in 1994 to save his government. Today it has become a norm to buy the same kind of support by offering Cabinet seats! Isn’t it ironical? Poor Narasimha Rao – he is still defending himself in the court of law for the act! And here we have a government in which coalition partners threaten to withdraw support if their party men are not given a particular ministry! What a shame.

Anyways, lets us move ahead. Having taken you through the exhaustive history of BJP’s rise to power. It is time we dwelled over how could BJP win the next elections? What can it do to win a simple majority in parliament? They have failed with all the issues like Hindutva, National Pride, Kashmir, Pakistan, and A tag of a Party with a difference etc. What else can they do now?

We all also know that:

Ø      BJP will at no cost leave the power. And when I say at no cost – well it means that – in those many words. They will go to any lengths to stay in power.

Ø      BJP has got fed up with the bindings of coalition partners and would like to get enough seats to make government on their own or with parties like Shiv Sena, which is predominantly pro-Hindu. 

Ø      Atal Bihari Vajpayee will not contest elections and hence will not be the Prime Ministerial candidate. L.K. Advani is not acceptable to anyone other than a handful of the people in BJP (as the PM). And if coalition politics is to be continued then BJP has to have someone like Vajpayee – which they themselves know they don’t have. The irony of BJP is that there is no other successor, other than L.K. Advani. And since he is unacceptable to majority – they have to take drastic measures to achieve absolute majority in the next elections and make him the PM. They won’t then, have to depend on any third party to decide who will be the PM.

I have my own thoughts on what could the BJP do to win. Allow me to share those with you today.

I see four scenarios that will get BJP the desired victory in the Parliamentary elections. These four scenarios will make them not only the single largest party in the parliament – they may even get absolute majority on their own. In all the cases we have to remember that BJP’s policy will be Pakistan Centric – because they know that other than cricket it is only Pakistan that gets the attention of the our countrymen and sentiments run high on both of the above! The thoughts that I am sharing with you here may be too offensive, odious, detestable and repulsive. But then future turn of events in this country will prove me either wrong or right.

So what are the options open for BJP to ensure victory? Let us see.

Option #1: Atal Bihari Vajpayee is assassinated.

Reasons: The option sounds unbelievable. Atrocious. But if you know the game of politics then you learn to understand that nothing is impossible here. If Vajpayee has to go for the over all cause of the party and nation – well – he must go. Period. Assassination is not unusual in Indian Politics. To substantiate my point let me take you through the history of Indian Politics for a moment. Mahatma Gandhi – the ideological head of Congress party, was killed in 1949. In 1966 the then PM of India Lal Bahadur Shastri died in Tashkent after signing the Tashkent agreement with Pakistan’s President Ayub Khan. His death is still shrouded in mystery and there is a very strong case of him being poisoned in his hotel room. Then in 1984 Indira Gandhi was killed at her own residence. Then again in 1991 Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated. These are glaring examples of how nothing is impossible in India. And here I have only taken the cases that have occurred in Independent India. The picture looks more gruesome if you look at the last 700 years of our history. Moreover, look at the advantages of Vajpayee’s assassination. The BJP has everything to gain. Vajpayee has already said that he has grown too old for such high voltage responsibility and hence would not like to continue beyond this term. What is the use of Vajpayee if BJP loses the elections? BJP does not need an elderly statesman sitting on the sidelines with BJP in opposition. They would rather have a martyr in their ranks. And moreover even if he decides to fight the next elections – does anyone believe here that they will be able to get majority in the next Parliament? No Sir – not by any stretch of imagination. They have fought three elections with him at the helm of the party affairs – but the magic number of simple majority in Parliament has always been elusive.

Indicators to the plan: We may find a lot of praise going Vajapyee’s way from February 2004 onwards. Intention would be to portray him as a hero. A Messiah.

Plan: Get him assassinated around May/ June of 2004. Get your Spin Doctors to work overnight. Create a rumor that terrorists on instruction of Pakistanis killed our beloved PM. Judge the pulse of the public. If the feeling of revenge is at its peak and if it can be converted into votes then keep beating the drum till elections. Create hysteria all across. Move the Army on the border and put them on high alert. Keep feeling the pulse – if that targeted figure of victory still seems impossible – then attack Pakistan. Fight for a few months and eventually after all the destruction – get an honorable truce. Declare elections immediately. Keep beating the drums of how our country fights for its honor. How we will not leave anyone who has corroborated in assassination of our PM. Victory in elections will be for the taking. And here, I am talking of absolute majority in Parliament.

Possibility of Victory in elections incase of Option #1: 100%

Option #2: President Abdul Kalam Azad is assassinated

Reason: Let us assume for a moment that assassinating a much-loved PM is considered to be too big for the planners. Who then can be used as the golden goat for achieving the larger goal? It has to be someone who is much admired and respected and is held in high esteem by the public. Well? Enter APJ Kalam – Our “People’s President” Abdul Kalam. Why he – you may ask? Let us look at some of the reasons. BJP has already played its card by getting a Muslim elected as the President of the country (So no one can say that they are against the minorities). That was, without doubt, a masterstroke by them. So if something was to happen to this lovable President – imagine the public’s reaction. It will be attack on our nation’s well-established secular fabric. It will be very clear that someone does not want communal harmony to last in this country. And who else other than Pakistan, which would want that? APJ is a likeable person. We would not tolerate his assassination even if he were not our President. He has contributed a lot for upholding the high standards of our scientific temper. His killing cannot be taken lightly.

Indicators to the Plan: APJ will suddenly be more visible. That means, media will be allowed to accompany him to all the places he visits and also ensuring that full coverage is given to news related to him and his achievements in prime time news programs. APJ will become more lovable and adorable. The trick is to raise him to such levels as only great men can reach.

Plan: Assassinate APJ when he is meeting some of the kids in some function somewhere in or around April/ May 2004. The nation will be in obvious shock. Play the whole sequence on media time and again. Get the public’s anger to reach its maximum and then attack Pakistan without a second thought. Continue it to the pre- defined limit and withdraw. Demonstrate that India will not take things lying down if Pakistan or terrorists sponsored by Pakistan will try to play around with the secularism in this country. Keep talking about how BJP believes in secular values and equal rights to all citizens belonging to any religion. Declare elections in mourning and play the revenge card. Hindus will vote for BJP since BJP would have demonstrated that trait of Hindus that we all take pride in – generosity. Muslims will for the first time vote overwhelmingly in favor of BJP for the obvious reasons. And if that happens BJP will win maximum seats that it contests on.

Possibility of Victory in elections incase of Option #2: 90%

Option #3: Some of our Cricketers are killed in Pakistan during their official tour

Reason: Now this is a wild scenario but not impossible. Indian Cricket team’s tour to Pakistan is long due and pending. The tour has not happened due to political reasons. The government has put on hold all the sporting relations with Pakistan. Cricket is a passion in both the countries. It has a potential to be manipulated by the political masters. It is also a known fact that the cricketers in this country are more loved than any politician worth his salt. Imagine if something were to happen to any of the major players in this team while in Pakistan? There are two risks though in execution of this plan. One, the plan will be very difficult to hide because it will involve quite a number of people to set the ball rolling. Second, it has to be executed in some other country. Still I have included this option because of two reasons. Even though the security around the visiting cricket team is always high – we know that a bomb did explode in the premises of the hotel in Pakistan, where New Zealand cricket team was staying. This happened in 2001 tour of New Zealand to Pakistan. The security in Pakistan was at its peak in that period because of the Afghanistan’s war. The point to be noted here is that what happened to New Zealand team can happen to Indian Team too. Secondly, our intelligence wing, the Research And Development Wing – known popularly as RAW is a strong element in Pakistan. The Pakistanis fear them. If anybody here thinks that ISI is more powerful in India than RAW in Pakistan - well I say, look again. It is a known fact that we have more people operating for RAW in Pakistan than ISI has in India. We do manage and execute coercive operations in Pakistan too. And if the government so desires – it can get things arranged for this operation also. Though this will be more risky since it will be hard to hide it from the public for long. But it’s a chance never the less. Considering that it is planned well to the minutest detail – it is not impossible to cause harm to our cricketers in Pakistan.

Indicators to the Plan: The government will give clearance to the Cricket Tour of Indian team to Pakistan. Hype will be created w.r.t. the security aspects of our players on the tour.

Plan: The government can allow the team to travel around February/March of 2004 for a two-month full tour. The trip will draw a lot of attention. The sentiments are bound to run high. The whole nation will be watching every match with lot of interest. That’s it. Arrange for a bomb blast in the hotel where Indians will be staying. Create the shock. The nation will dumb with shock. Take advantage. Cancel the tour and call the remaining team back. Move the troops to borders and attack Pakistan. Gain some sort of victory and make a truce. BJP can then shout from all nook and corner as to how they saved the country and brought them the honor of revenge. Declare elections. BJP can then ask votes in the name of the Honor of the Country. People will definitely vote in huge numbers and even the staunchest opponent of BJP will vote for them. If the plan is executed properly this plan will be a sure short way of ensuring victory in elections – And remember that is more important than some cricketers life.

Possibility of Victory in elections incase of Option #3: 100%

Option #4: Sonia Gandhi is killed

Reasons: Considering that the planners may get cold feet on both of the above since the persons mentioned above are very powerful and possibly have the highest category of security. To eliminate them will involve high risks. There is one more likely target. Though low on count but of a high potential never the less. Yes. Sonia Gandhi.  She is currently the Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha and also Head of the Congress party. There are quite a few advantages if she is assassinated. To start with – the BJP can claim that it was an act of terrorism and is inclined to spread communal tension in the country – because she is a Christian! They can then blame and attack Pakistan and get all the credit for the revenge. As usual the evergreen Pakistan Drum, which is ready to be beaten anytime, can be used here too! There is one more inherent advantage. Once she is gone – there will be no one in the Gandhi family to take over the reins of Congress party and that will be to the advantage of BJP! Will be a masterstroke if you ask me.

Indicators to the Plan: There will be a lot of leakages into the press and media about how BJP respects and has considered the views of Sonia Gandhi in some critical/crucial matters. Sonia will be praised for the struggle she has had to undergo to keep an old party alive. Praise will be showered on her organizational skills. Finally she may get facilitated with the Parliamentarian of the Year award or some other prestigious award. In short – everything would be done to increase her stature in the eyes of the public.

Plan:  Assassinate Sonia Gandhi around April of 2004. The sympathy will definitely be with Sonia and Congress. BJP can mourn the death of great leader like Sonia and promise revenge for the terrorist attack. Bring Pakistan’s name in the whole thing. Beat the drums of revenge and attack Pakistan without blinking! Stop the war after all the killings and all the destructions. Go back to public with a victorious smile and tell them that BJP’s Government has taken revenge for the assassination of one of Mother India’s most loved Daughter-in-Law! Public will forget that this is the same party who was calling Sonia an Italian till very recently! Declare elections and talk only about honor. Praise Sonia as much as possible. I am sure they will eat into the traditional votes of Congress itself. This plan does not have much potential compared to others – but if used in a planned way – it can fetch rich dividends for BJP. And as I said – Congress Party will disintegrate without a Gandhi clan to lead them!

Possibility of Victory in elections incase of Option #4: 70%

Remember that Public’s sentiments are of paramount importance in any election. This sentiment has to be played with and eventually be tilted towards the intended direction. That is the key. All parties do it. Some do it in the parameters of undefined ethical political rules. Some do it without caring a damn about anything. Well – BJP does fall in the second category.

Even otherwise - look at the times when they have had major gains in the elections – first during 1991, next during 1996 elections and again during 1999 (when they would have been rooted out because of their not so impressive one year performance). And in all these times they had major blood bath to back them up. In 1991 elections – it was the Rath Yatra and subsequent movement in Ayodhya in which thousands were killed in UP. In 1996 elections – they were backed up by the Bloody sequences that followed (in states like UP, Gujarat and Maharashtra) after the Babri Masjid was broken. And again in 1999 – they benefited from a war where thousands were killed in Kargil. All three have been major turning points for them. And since we are on this topic – it will not be out of the place to mention the recent Gujarat Elections where BJP won handsomely! Have we ever thought – why did Godhra massacre happen just 3-4 months before elections? Hmmm… There is much more than what meets the eye here. Anyways –here again BJP benefited from all the Blood Bath! Now that Ayodhya as an issue is almost over and National Security drama has been played umpteen numbers of times – it is time for some new mantra. And I have a feeling that the name of the game will now be “Honor of the Country”. And whatever they do, will be in the name of Honor of the Country. Wait and watch.

For this party life of a human being is not important. Ask them and they will possibly say – that some lives will be lost for the cause of the nation (!!). It is of a cheap value and so is expendable anyways.  Huh. Anything that would help them in retaining the power is fine with them. And if the cost is Human Lives – then so be it. If anybody here thinks that BJP believes in democracy and democratic values – I suggest you sit back and think again.

I will leave you with certain questions to ponder.

• How many bills have been passed in all the parliament sessions that we have had in last 5 years? Has anybody noticed that in BJP’s rule there has been more number of Ordinances than actual Bills passed by the parliament?
• If POTA was supposed to be used for people working against the national interests, people contributing to terrorist activities and also against people trying to create unrest in the country – then why has POTA not used to ban RSS, VHP and Bajrang Dal? Why was VHP or Bajrang Dal not banned for their role in Gujarat Riots and Violence?
• If this party ever believed in democratic values – why was there never a discussion in Parliament on the Tehelka Scandal, Coffin scandal, Kargil war? Why does BJP always relate all the issues with national security and avoid discussions in Parliament? Are they afraid or they just don’t think that they need to discuss this with anyone?
• Narendra Modi (Chief Minister of Gujarat) compared the riots and violence after Godhra incident with the Newton’s Law – which says every action has an equal and opposite reaction! And he gets away with it? Why? Because he is from BJP? What more - he is praised for all the violence in his party! And this is the same party, which wanted to bump off Laloo Prasad Yadav because he was not able to maintain law and order in his state of Bihar?

Do you think a party with such a record believes in democracy? And I am quoting only a few instances here. For all of you who think they believe in democracy – I say – better watch out. You are in for some real eye opener in the coming year.

I would back myself on these options. I don’t know whether you are with me on this.

Think about it.

Its Montoo..