Financial Crisis: The Clueless Experts

It has been quite a while now since the world started discussing the economic and financial crisis. This crisis has dried up tons of ink and used up valuable paper (with print media going bonkers over it), used up “valuable time” of the “experts” explaining the Whys’ and  the Hows’ of the whole situation, eaten up many a number of hours of every human being’s life, gulped down billions and billions of dollars in form of “stimulating” packages, led to seemingly crooked entrepreneurs (like Raju Uncle) to finally call it a day, made many bankrupt and jobless, and more importantly continues to make everyone nervous – very nervous.

Come to think of it, what has the world achieved in all this discussion? Hmmm… Nothing… I mean, if you were to discount the heightened anxiety of any and everyone who is earning. Frankly, all those concepts of financial wisdom, economic sensitivity, sound business logic, hitherto streamlined Banking concepts etc have gone kaput. Money market, Share market, Forward trading, Forex Trading, Spot Market, Debt Funds, Mutual Funds have now become household names. Not to discount the popularity of our “beloveds” - Foreign Institutional Investors (FII), Domestic Investors, SEBI, Finance Ministry, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and hordes of their ilk. These have been the prime movers and shakers in this current situation. Not that anyone of them (RBI, SEBI etc) have any control over what is currently happening and what shape will the economies take in coming months. So RBI is bringing all the rates down (earlier they were taking it up), FIIs came in a big way, ran away even faster (and have been playing hide and seek since then), SEBI has no idea what stuck them and Finance Ministry has been trying to figure a way out of this (with stimulus packages, announcing reduction of taxes and levies). But they have also given up. Finally fed up of not being able to do much (and with no more clues on what can now be done) – Mr. P Chidambaram has left Finance Ministry and taken over Home Ministry, Commerce Minister (sitting in Davos, at the time of writing this article) is already talking about how nothing else can be done, and our Economist Prime Minister decided that he too cannot do anything on this and went ahead with his long pending Surgery. Strange isn’t it – when the entire world is gripped with this enormous life threatening economic problem – a country like ours does not feel the need to have even a permanent Finance Minister in place. So you see – we are left to fend for ourselves now. But, against what and against whom? Hmmm… now that’s a tricky question I have been asking myself for sometime now. Do you know the answers?

Alright, let’s get serious, shall we?

“Erstwhile” human “sentiments” like Panic, scare, shock, worry, skepticism, uncertainty, excitement, anticipation etc have continuously been associated to the Share Market entity. Even more so now. If you were to listen to daily broadcasts of share market – you will wonder if share market is indeed a weak emotional fool! There is panic as well as jubilation for every fall and rise of indices. Look at what’s happening these days. The Bulls and the Bears have been fighting a severely bloody battle. Some days the Bull overpowers the Bear and the market gains a few points and at others the lazy Bear gets back its strength and snatches those additional points that the Bull had won. It’s another matter that a few thousand Crores of Rupees go down the drain with every Bearish win. Not to say, a few more people going bankrupt. And thanks to the media glorifying every win of Bears – the “sentiments” of the fence-sitters, looking at the Bull Vs Bear fight, take a big hit. They start selling their stakes in “panic” – “energizing” the Bear even more. These small/medium investors don’t realize that the win for bear was brought about by those ugly FIIs – who suddenly decided that the market was at appropriate level for them to book profits and start selling in big chunk! In turn sucking out valuable funds from the Investment market’s kitty. The fence sitters, with very little investment in the market (in comparison to Institutional Investors), rightfully feel cheated and robbed. But can they do anything? Nah. Do they have any control over the strategic plans of these FIIs? Nah, again. You see FIIs are not our “Papas” to think of our well being before theirs! They have their own interests and with them being global entities – they move their money around the world market to get the maximum profits (for their own declared/undeclared clientele). So they bring in money in a market and move out when “they” feel they can take out the maximum “juice” out of the current market. Knowing all this – knowing that market movement is controlled by these few mongers, we still get scared by outward movement of funds.

And what role do experts play in defining investment patters for small/medium investors? In my view – they are largely dubious, uninformed and don’t know their business well enough. Mind you – I may jot down these financial jargons – I don’t however claim to be an expert by any stretch of imagination. No Sir. I would rather call myself “foolish” than “eat my own shoes later”, like all those financial experts around. Boy – have you heard these experts? They are like TV commentators of a game of cricket who will very intelligently inform everyone viewing the match that the batsman missed the ball and the ball went to the wicketkeeper. The whole world can see the same on Television screen. Doesn’t require an expert to tell us that – does it? We want to know an “intelligent” review of the happenings and perhaps a forecast of what could happen – IF and only if they themselves know about it. We assume that these experts have enough experience, inside knowledge and/or analytical skills to honestly inform their audiences about profitability or dangers that lie ahead. But no Sir – 99% of these experts are like those cricket commentators. So when the Bears take charge of the market – these extremely knowledgeable Experts go on and on about how the sentiments of the markets have taken a beating and how the market is in a gloomy phase, they (justifying their status as master of the trade) go on to inform everyone that the gloom is going to stay for a few days… ah weeks… or it would follow the same bearish trend for the coming two quarters. Our sentiments (that had taken a beating anyways by the falling share prices during the trading hours) skips’ another beat just by such Oh! Such informed prediction by the “great expert”.

It’s just that the next day market opens up stronger – with consistent Bull rally and closes 100 odd points over the last day. But Lo Behold – our experts have answers to that too. You see they are the experts – they know everything. So they very innocently tell us …that the markets on that day followed the “positive cues” from the overnight US market. The sentiments (that phrase again!) of the domestic investors were vastly improved by the encouraging signs of the European and US markets and the same resulted in a lot of buying in the market. The FIIs led the charge (as always) and that has also resulted in a stronger rupee… You then want to know what led to the Western Markets rising overnight – and you are told by these experts that …the markets around the world have realized that the “basic fundamentals” are sound around the world and that they can bring in their stocked money into the market for meaningful investments… Ah! Now – now it all makes sense. So finally we can see some stabilization in the market. The market (true to the Expert’s views) opens the next day with upward movement and closes again on a high. Our experts go on a rampage very soon …Oh, the market is stabilizing now – not to worry. Apart from small hiccups some days – the market will remain bullish and will hover around the “psychological mark” of 9000+ (SENSEX) and 2500+ (NSE). There are strong positive cues coming out of US market – which is primarily due to “Stimulus” package (the most used word today in the world) announced by the President. The market has taken this up very well and there is a feeling now that the businesses will reorganize themselves and investors can hence look to good days in the coming months... These experts though very conveniently forget that just a couple of days back these same “visionaries” had predicted a gloomy market for the coming quarters. And to prove them wrong all over again and true to the unpredictable nature of the market – the Sensex/NSE crashes to an all time low the very next day and remains there for days to come. But our experts don’t feel ashamed – they have many a cards up their sleeves you see. As usual, a few more tons of ink and loads of airtime are wasted by these experts to explain the new trend in print media (as well as On-Air). So much for expert value. Huh.

You see, the whole point I am trying to make is that no one – and I repeat – NO ONE knows what is happening and what is going to happen today or tomorrow in these times. Taking a parallel, it was easier to predict Roger Federer’s Grand Slam victories in the times that he was invincible. This was till someone named Rafael Nadal came along. Ask any expert today regarding who will win a particular Grand slam? You will find most of them stammer. After a year or two perhaps everyone will be confident enough to say that Nadal will win. But, they can’t afford to say that today. Why? Because there are lots of ifs and buts involved. Variables like, determination of the players, the confidence of the players, the luck of the players etc. These are the things that no expert sitting in an A/c room can judge or define and hence they falter in their analysis and predictions. Investment Markets have unparalleled number of variables which no single person (world over) has potential to understand. Thanks to coupling of the domestic economy/market with the other parts of the world and thanks to information traversing around in increasingly faster pace – the markets do not necessarily react to domestic moods and events. So irrespective of whether “Infosys” declares Quarterly results with good profit margins or whether RBI announces cuts on CRR/Repo/Reverse-Repo rates – the markets do not necessarily react favorably the next day. A typical example is of the reaction of local markets to the two “Stimulus” packages that the Government of India (GOI) announced in the last 3/4 months. The markets opened weak the very next day. Why? The thousands of crores of Rupees announced as part of relief and stimuli did not play any significant role in how the markets reacted. They anyways fell because there was some major company that went bankrupt in US or some big bank that required bailing out in Europe. Hence, all the positive steps the GOI, or any other Nation’s Government for that matter, takes, does not infuse enthusiasm in the market. As if the bundles of millions and millions of Rupees go down the deep-dark drain. (Just to give a dose of experts’ analysis on markets position after Stimulus packages were announced – they said …Market had already discounted the positive cues generated by the possible announcement of relief package by the GOI a few days back and hence there was no enthusiasm in the market when it was announced yesterday evening. It is hence that the Markets opened weak today. And so it goes… Wah re Experts.)

I can see two parts to the whole Share market story. One is the “Sentimental” part and the other is the “Real” one. It is like the eternal fight between the Heart and the Mind. And I have a feeling that the Sentimental part is being dominant in the last 2-6 Quarters and is winning over the logical arguments. And that is what prompts me to say that the world as a whole has failed itself by being sentimental about this matter. The ground realities have been neglected in their analysis of the situation and resultant corrective steps that they have taken. So (?) a few big shots had to close down their companies and a few had to be bailed out. Does it stop anyone from making a new beginning, as earlier? After all billions and trillions of dollars have been infused in the market by various countries – where are these funds going? Are those few profit-making mongers (those big investment houses/funds) gulping away the money before it reaches the logical destination? It is important that you think about it. USA alone has infused so much of liquidity in their domestic market, India has done the same, UK has taken similar steps and so have almost every other country. So where is all the fund vanishing? We continue to see companies closing down, people losing jobs, Markets lying low and demands continue to be at their lower levels. Why? There has been bumper crop this year in India alone, there is excess food lying in stores, there is no shortage of food and vegetables in the market, there is no spurt in Oil prices, the base interest rates are pretty decent, there is huge investment made by GOI in infrastructure projects and hence the construction work is still going on, Heavy industries (like steel, cement, coal etc) have no reason to reduce production by huge margins – then why the depressing feeling of slowdown? 60-70% people of our country are either farmers or connected to farming and its subsidiary businesses. None of them have any problems. In fact, in my recent visit to my village – I could see no signs of any recessionary tensions there. They in fact laughed off any talk of slowdown and recession affecting them. For them – it does not matter if the Dollar value reduces, it does not matter if Auto Industry, Airlines, IT industry, Investment Market is slowing down. For them, this year has been good with ample rains and bumper crop – enough for them to keep them happy. And that is the feeling across all the surrounding areas that I made social visits to. I am sure the same is the case with most of the other Villages – i.e. the major majority of people in India. So why is there a feeling of panic in the remaining 30% of the population? If you really see, there is no panic even in the whole of 30% of the remaining population. Majority of them are Public Servants, Central/State Government employees, Defense Personnel etc. These people do not have to fear for their jobs just yet (perhaps never). So it is only 5-10% (at the max) of the people who are worried with this downtrend in the global financial markets. Is it then fair to paste a gloomy picture of the state of entire country as a whole? Not by any means.

For me – the land/house and all fixed assets are still there. For me – the nations are still printing the same amount of currency (if not a bit more), for me the gold still glitters the same way as earlier (and has not reduced in quantity in Government coffers) and for me – I do the same amount of hard work I did earlier (if not more). On top of that there is so much infusion of liquidity in the market. But the situation still seems bleak or at least is painted in dark colors. Why? We need to think hard on these factors all over again. The problem is not with the liquidity. The supply is still there. The Demand has reduced for sure though. It is time we all prepped up the demand then. Markets I am sure will fall in place. But who will want to increase the demand and spend precious funds that we all hold for emergency. Not with all the experts predicting doom for many months to come and definitely not with our jobs at stake. But then someone has to start. Question is who will?

Also, the problem is not that the private companies have suddenly stopped being productive. The problem is with the fraudulent accounting practices that the companies have followed till late and continuing to follow even now. Problem is with asset valuation done, not on the base rates, but on the current market rates. Problem is with profit projections based on these inflated valuations of fixed/movable/immovable assets of the organization and in turn building up their credit worthiness in the eyes of the lenders. Problem is with spreading the losses incurred in a particular year over next few years – painting an entirely wrong picture of the state of a given company. Problem is also with the Financial Rating agencies not having sound methods of evaluating and rating companies/investment opportunities. These and connected issues are the basic problems for me. And the current crisis is due to this more than anything else. Suddenly due to fall in underlying assets – the account books of the organizations have gone in red. The liabilities that were built up on the inflated Asset figures were for real and as soon as the inflated assets fell in their valuation – the whole damn balance sheet went into negative. The companies hence began to default on repaying their liabilities. The lenders naturally had to close in to get their dues. This eventually resulted in many companies declaring bankruptcy. Some of these companies are now being bailed out – but for others there is no respite. Frankly, they are themselves to be blamed. The high flying financial experts and their workforce (of such companies) should be quarantined and trained all over again on honest/true accounting practices really. That is the only solution (along with some financial help from governments), before a fresh start can be made.

Anyways, getting back to the topic on hand – I would suggest that for everyone who is predicting the down trend to continue for the whole of this year – use your middle finger as they do not seem to have any idea of what is going on and it is for this that we should not give them much importance. I would want you too to use the same contempt as you would use to anyone misleading you in life. I shall take two examples to demonstrate why these are the biggest idiots (for want to better word) you will ever come across.

Take the first one: The Rise and fall of Crude Oil prices is one major example of how everyone is clueless about what happens in the market. Remember the time till the last two quarters of 2007 when Crude oil prices were in their comfortable range of 55-65$ per Barrel? Remember also how this soon started changing when the crude oil prices started rising slowly to 74.12…79.91…91.69 by December 2007. Our so-called experts were having a field day explaining the trend. Predictions were made that the oil prices will continue to rise till $125 once it rallies beyond the “psychological” barrier of 100$. This is after it had continuously breached the previous “barrier” of $60 a few times already that year. The jubilation, of such “on-the-pulse” type of experts, knew no bounds when the crude oil prices went on a rampage soon after and crossed all logical propositions to go beyond $100 in Jan 2008 itself and continued to rise. It crossed $120 in May 2008 and eventually reached $147.30 in July 2008. Every expert worth his salt was predicting the rise of oil to go far beyond $150 per barrel soon and then perhaps going on to touch $200 in the coming Quarters. In fact, I was reading an article by a South Asian expert in “The Economic Times” paper – and he with all his years of experience in the Market as an expert on Crude Oil pricing and movements – summarized that the prices of oil will indeed continue to rise and for people expecting it to fall below $100 and perhaps reaching the levels of $50-$60 was preposterous in imagination and far removed from reality. He asked such people to come out of their dreams and get real. According to him the reasonable “settling down” price of oil would hover around $110-$120 in the long run. And such explanations were repeated in all the analytical programs and articles that I read in those times. For people who listen to the News programs of any kind – will recollect that a host of reasons were also given for the continuous rise of prices. Reasons like, Decrease in Oil Reserves in US, Middle-east conflict, Geo-political events like natural disasters in that period, North Korean Missile tests, Worries over Iranian Nuclear program and supposed attack by US on Iran etc. Some analysts also claimed that there has been sudden spurt of demand from China and India (with its huge population), some blamed it on Katrina (The “Hurricane” in US) and a few of them blamed financial speculation (with host of fancy names attached to this). The fact is that when the prices were increasing, the demand in US for Oil reduced in January 2008 period. The prices did not fall thereafter. Did it? Neither is there any proof to suggest that India/China had increased demand of oil suddenly in 2007/2008. Other reasons like conflicts, worries about Nuclear Bombs etc are reasons that may affect the prices for a brief period – not over many months. That then leaves the probable reason of Financial Market speculation. It would have been interesting to see whether the reasons for increase in oil prices were due to “Oil Futures” (Note: Future contracts are purchase of contracts/commodity – by high end investors – at a set price for future delivery on a set date. This is either settled in cash on the set date or sold to genuine customers. There is no purchase of actual item/commodity – in this case Oil). We shall not get into how the Oil Futures drove this market – as is most likely the case. But the fact remains that without change in fundamental demand in the world market – the prices of oil started sprinting northwards – breaking all records. And true to form – our experts were having fun! The only problem for them was that the Crude oil prices started falling – in fact they crashed while experts were still jumping on the “northward” wagon. It fell to below $130 by Aug 2008 and further down to below $100 by Sep 2008, below $60 by Oct 2008 and hovered around $30-$40 by end of Dec 2008. Hoof! All the inflated egos should have taken a hiding – or so we hoped! But no sir – not a chance! The Experts were soon back and again explaining “why” the prices fell suddenly to such levels. Forgotten was all the prediction and explanations they had put forth for the prices to go beyond $150! And no – the demand did not reduce too much from any of the major countries in July 2008 and neither did Supply increase substantially (as was being worked out by USA with Saudi Arabia). If I were to put my neck out and point a reason for the whole “drama” that cost many headaches to oil importing nations – it would be financial speculation led by those few greedy thugs who have lot of black money with them to float around and bet on such untested instruments (as Future contracts) for bigger gains. Point here being – none of the damn experts could either analyze or predict the sudden rise of the oil prices – neither could they estimate the fall of the same. In summary – they were (and they continue to be) useless in their value.

Now look at the second example. The rise and fall of Share market – especially the BSE Sensex (Bombay Stock Exchange SENSitive IndEX). When the market started rising in late 2005 from 6000 points to crossing 10000 (another “psychological barrier”) in Jan/Feb 2006 everybody started saying well – the market is bullish and it may settle down at around 13K points in the coming years. Hmmm… Sensex crossed 13000 mark by Nov 2006 and 15K by the June 2008. That’s it – enough of “caution to the wind” attitude. The Experts went berserk and started predicting 20K+ targets in the coming years. Long forgotten were 13K figures of stabilization according to their analysis earlier. Of course! They were feeding the bull and kicking it to perform higher. The bear was badly bruised and beaten and was recuperating. True to form (in fact beyond anyone’s wildest dreams) the Sensex moved from 17559 to 19243 within a week in Oct 2007. Experts had reasons ready for such a phenomenal jump. They were all in golden haze. They went one step further and prophesized – if the Sensex crosses 20K mark – well, sky is the limit and 25K will be reached pretty quickly. After all there are FIIs waiting with a lot of money on the fence and are only waiting for some profit booking (selling of shares in the Market) to happen. Once they infuse those funds – 25K is the point to reach! The Sensex touched 20000 points (20827 to be exact) by end of Dec 2007! Wow! India – The growth story of the decade! Everyone is so very impressed with the growth opportunities existing in the country. My…My…Who wouldn’t want to invest here? We are a stable economy and with a lot of promise. Thank you very much. The oil prices had by then started playing their own games… and moving northwards. The Institutional investors found the oil market to be much more lucrative and profitable and quickly started to move money there. And for that they started selling in markets like India. Our experts did not know what hit them. The Bear was back and back with vengeance! The Sensex very promptly started losing air. By April 2008 – Sensex had been beaten to 15000 levels and fell from 14K in Sep 2008 to 8701 points by the end of Oct 2008. Month of October was never so bad in India for domestic investors. With it being the month of festivals around the country – the Share Markets (being Oh so sensitive) historically perform well in the month of October and November. Not this time though. The FIIs are not necessarily Indians and they for sure do not care about Festivals in India. Hah. The Market has been hovering in-between 7500 to 9500 in the last 4 months now, with the Bull getting up sometimes – to be beaten back again and again by the re-energized Bear. Needless to say the rising Oil and essential commodity prices led to these profit-making FIIs to move to Oil and Commodity market. Since it is the same money that has to be moved around, they have to take money away from established money markets. The high Oil prices led to recession kicking-in in US and eventually to most of the countries around the globe. This recession led to falling demand and eventually brought down the Oil prices. The FIIs for once took big beating. The funds that they had, suddenly started dwindling. The hunters as they say – became the hunted. They started selling their investments to retrieve cash. And today, I believe, they are biding their time (with most of their money still in place and in their closet). They will come out blazing again soon. But the point is, our experts in all this rise and fall of Sensex did not have the foresight to predict that the inflated “markers” were not to be treated as bench marks and that though the India-story is definitely strong and growing – there is no reason to believe that the rise of the share market is in line with the growth trajectory of the country. That is what I expect out of experts. If they are to follow the wind and float around with the wind – then they are as good/bad as us. Then they are not the experts as we wish them to be. Are they? That, the FIIs were bound to leave someday was there for everyone to see. Foreign Investment (as through FII route) is not the same as FDI (Foreign Direct Investment). FDI invests money in projects around the country. They take partial/full ownership of the companies that they invest in. They are responsible for the performance of the companies they put their money in. Such investments are generally for long term purposes and are based on the performance of the country and growth of the country. FIIs, for that matter, are not bound by any commitment. They can bring in the money and run away when and if they please. The bubble was there for everyone to see – but few had the guts to spill it out. In turn – innocent, small investors lost their life time earnings when the bubble burst, leading to a lot of hardships.

You see – the point I am trying to make here is – listen to as many experts you wish to. I would however be happy if you would use your own brains/judgment in so far as your own investments are concerned. If you do not understand the investment – kindly invest your money in Debt funds like FD, Term Deposits, PPF, etc. Where, you will at least be guaranteed a constant return (though perhaps on a lower level than the Money/Share Market). Never… Never trust the experts and their views. They (major majority of them I must say) are absolutely clueless. In fact, most of the Governments are also clueless, including (and sadly) our own. Take the example of the rise and fall of inflation. From a comfortable 5+% range – it suddenly rose to 12-13% in a matter of few weeks in early 2008. The increase was primarily due to increasing cost of Oil products (due to increase in imported Crude oil prices) and hoarding of commodity by wholesale merchants. You will recollect that even though Diesel and Petrol prices were not raised (till the very end) the prices of commodities and essentials increased. Why? You can thank those private hoarders. And as usual with GOI (I mean their habit of curing the Knee when the Toe was injured) stepped in through RBI and increased CRR/Repo/Reverse Report rates. This was to curb the Demand by sucking away liquidity from market. The problem however was definitely not in demand, if you really look deeper. And even if it were, I am not inclined to believe that the Demand-supply mismatch was due to higher demand by the millions of citizens of the country. So why squeeze liquidity out of market by increasing lending rates? Was there any improvement in the market when RBI took the above steps? Oh yes, the few wealthy ones stopped buying land/property etc. But did it bring down the commodity prices? Nah. Not for many months. Neither was there any significant improvement in the Inflation rates even months after these measures. But today the inflation is at 4-5% and predicted to slide to 3%. Now they are cutting back all the rates all over again. They may pat their backs for bringing the Inflation down. But who are they trying to fool? If not for recession the world over and if not for the prices of oil going down from $148 to $30 – we would have seen the truth. And no – recession and Southward movement of Oil did not happen because of RBI’s “bold steps” taken to curb inflation. They were supposed to be seen to be doing something, and they just did “something”. Look at today’s scenario – the RBI has cut their base rates and so have some Banks. This should ideally flood the market with liquidity and increase demand – isn’t it? That should then ideally lead to Demand Supply mismatch (i.e. Supply will not be able to match up to Demand) – increasing inflation in the coming quarter? Agreed? So why did RBI project a lower inflation of 3% in future? There are no easy answers. But again – they have to be seen to be doing something as I said. And here they are. Their end goals don’t have any synergy to their means adopted. And for me – that is a proof of people in authority being clueless. And true to their illogical “logics” they project GDP to be around 8.75, then 8.5/8.25, then 7.5/7.6 and these days they are talking about 7% GDP growth (Our Commerce Minister still talks about 7.5+% GDP even now). Sign of people who know their trade? You decide. And all these downgrading has been happening within the last 2 quarters. I am not sure – but shouldn’t these policy makers have some view of future and then come up with a firm prediction? Or is it not based on any logic at all – as I have begun to feel?

Again, today every expert is predicting a prolonged recessionary period in the entire world. I am not so sure though. As with inflated projections while the going is good – I have a feeling that the world of experts has been understating the actual situation. I strongly feel that the problem is perhaps lack of hope and faith in the existing processes/practices and systems, that perhaps is holding back a definite upsurge in the market. And given that, I have a strong hunch that Obama’s coming would do the trick really. He may not have a magic wand – but he already has brought in a lot of hope in the world. And if he were to come up with some concrete steps – it could be in form of Stimulus package of some kind or such policies that would increase demand – the market in US will start rising again and the other parts of the world would follow suit. See, the problem started with crashing of US realty market. The solution will also come from there. With information flowing fast in this era – any positive cues from USA will percolate faster to other regions and that would lead to increase in confidence of investors sitting over funds. All this can happen pretty fast. Nothing in the last 2-3 years suggest that historical trends of earlier times would be followed and hence am confident that the recession or so called recession would be busted as soon as there is a perceived positive trigger that everyone embraces. And the path to growth story would be much faster this time around, in comparison to earlier times where it took many months for a recession to move into stability and growth.

I think we are looking at the end of this quarter for the turnaround (+/- 20% timelines). The only fear is that these godforsaken experts will continue to paste a gloomy picture and unnecessarily delay the turnaround. If they were to shut up or at least talk of hope with every positive step taken by Governments around the world – the problem would be resolved in half the time. As I said, the land, the houses, the money, the people, the entrepreneurs, the major banks, the major countries, the trading route, the processes, the IT companies etc are all there and are almost stable, even now. It only needs the infusion of hope and positive sentiments for them to start picking threads. Business will start trickling in all over again – and so will revenue.

On a personal note – I “hope” I am proved right this time around. Have I put my foot in my mouth again, by putting my finger on a timeframe? Well – time shall tell! You see – I believe in what Thomas Edison said – “I will not say I failed 1000 times, I will say I discovered 1000 ways that can cause failure”

Mantosh Singh..

23^rd Jan 2009’ – 5^th Feb 2009’