Friday 6 October 2017

Rise of Corruption - an Analysis

Rise of Corruption – an Analysis

“Corruption is worse than prostitution. While the latter might endanger the morals of an individual – the former invariably endangers the morals of the entire country”. Karl Kraus
In the past few months, we observed that our daughter was losing a pencil or Sharpener/Eraser/Color Pencils/Sketch Pens on almost daily basis. Initially, we put this to her negligent ways and habits that she may have acquired as part of her growing up. And she was at receiving end of our ire. She however kept telling us that it was some x or y friends in school who took it from her but did not return. Only on a few occasions would she say that she may have dropped it somewhere. However, to confirm her story – we started writing her name on every Pencil, eraser etc. The trend of her losing her items continued though. One day when she yet again came back from school without her new Pencils, we asked her the name of the friend who took them. We called her friend’s home and asked her Parents if there indeed was a pencil of Ruhin with their daughter she may have taken inadvertently. To our surprise, we found that – it was indeed there. We requested that the same to be sent back. We did this exercise a couple of times again with her other friends too. And to our astonishment, we found that the items Ruhin said were taken by her friends were indeed with them. Everyone would say they would send it back the next day – but that did not always happen. We asked Ruhin to request the Teacher to help in getting the items back from next time. To our surprise (and as narrated) by Ruhin – the kids would abashedly say the items were theirs’. They would only return the item when Ruhin would point to her name written on the Pencil (or whatever it was that was taken from her)! And this is not just one case. There have been a few in the last few months.
“If a country is to be corruption free and become a nation of beautiful minds, I strongly feel there are three key societal members who can make a difference. They are the father, the mother and the teacher.” Abdul Kalam
I find a lot of value in the above. The notion of such incidents being small digressions of innocent kids is what actually makes these a part of the main stream culture, eventually leading to the menace that we loathe today... “Corruption”
“It is not the young people that degenerate; they are not spoiled till those of mature age are already sunk into corruption” Charles de Montesquieu
I, as most of you, have been hugely affected by high level of corruption in the society. And I have always struggled to answer that one question – “How did we land up here?”. After all its only been sixty odd years since we got our independence. We had great values then… honorable men and women were the order of the day. What happened thereafter?
“The accomplice to the crime of corruption is frequently our own indifference” Bess Myerson
We I think became complacent. We stopped bothering about the country and society. We stopped following the right path. Everyone in this country detests corrupt people. But who are these corrupt ones – You and Me… You and Me… You and Me. There is no other answer. I don’t ever tire saying that – “It’s You and Me” - no one else. We are corrupt but we still are audacious enough to raise finger at corruption in politics and government departments. Silly of us – isn’t it?
And for life of me I will never understand how did it become acceptable in the society? Corruption will always be a part of society but for me the brazenness of it today, is what is more troubling. You only have to look at the proportion of corruption cases that have come out in recent times. As if millions didn’t suffice. It’s the billions that the corrupt are interested in now. And these guys just don’t bother about laws. Every scam reported in the last 2-5 years has been a revelation – as if each of these people in power were trying to outdo each other. So, if Kalmadi can – why can’t I, if Raja can – why can’t I, if people in Coal Ministry, Aviation, Infrastructure, Railways, and Textile – can… well – why can’t I? Indeed why not? It’s as if tax payer’s money is for them to loot – so they just go ahead and do it! Today Bofors scam (of mere 600 Million) seems to be small skirmish – insignificant. I mean, what have we come to?
As much as we want to admonish every single one who is involved in corruption – for me – it was important to understand (make sense of) what led our countrymen to such labyrinth circle of deceit and corruption.
And before I delve into the reasons that I think could have led us to where we are today – I am going to entirely discard the notion that we have always been a corrupt-free society. Before you all jump on me – let me rephrase it – we were always a society who had people in power, or in the circle of influence, who were extremely corrupt and treacherous… historically speaking. Soothe your nerves? It was thanks to those corrupt people that we were beaten time and again by foreign intruders and were ruled many times over by all kind of thugs, businessmen, looters etc. These, who came from outside could easily lure our corrupt band of people and with their help run their victory laps. There are many stories in public domain for you to read and know about how the Turks, the Afghans, Moghuls and the British took control of our country and then ruled for many number of years. And the corrupt not only helped them win India every time they also helped them rule with a small band of people of their own ilk – but a larger corrupt ones from our end! So corruption and lower moral values have always been a part of our society. We cannot run away from the fact.
However, Independence struggle gave us a chance. That was one struggle which needed absolute commitment and high moral strength & belief. I truly believe we had a more righteous society then. People were willing to go to great lengths to remain truthful, honest and to live up to the rightly defined moral values of the society. That was the only way to get freedom. And that we got. Unfortunately, the sane are dead now and with the passage of time, we have gone back to our original model – of being corrupt and treacherous.
So going back to the original quandary, why have people turned corrupt in this country? Why could we not take strict action against the corrupt devils right when they were just offshoots?  Why over a period of time have we been tolerant to such mammoth corruption? And why today it has become an acceptable part of our society?
I firmly believe where humans are involved – there is always a reason for the practices they inculcate and follow. I have spent a lot of time thinking about this. I took a deep look at the history of major events in Independent India. Out of many events that I did list – I pinned down a few that, according to me, had profound impact on the way our thought process got defined & changed. I don’t claim to be an expert on this – but it is an honest attempt, which perhaps a few of you may challenge. For the records, many other events (not listed here) may have had an impact on our society – but I am only looking at the ones that have contributed to the rise of “Corruption” in this country and the ones that made it an acceptable devil. You see – corruption has its own motivations, and one has to evaluate the phenomenon and understand them better to eventually eliminate the foundations on which it may exist.
Alright, without much ado let me dive straight into the reasons of why, I think, a pure independent India became a cultivable ground for corrupt weeds to grow.
Voluminous Constitution & Outdated Indian Penal Code (IPC)
“The more corrupt the state, the more numerous the laws.” (Tacitus, the Annals of Imperial Rome)
Ok – so we created Indian constitution after lot of research, analysis and debate. We got a mammoth book eventually, that we called our constitution. For those who are yet to know – our constitution consists of 24 parts with 450 articles, 12 Schedules, 2 Appendices which have undergone more than 100+ amendments in almost 65+ years of independence. It is by far the largest/longest constitution adapted by any country anywhere in the world.
Similar is the case with IPC, which covers the entire paradigm of criminal law in this country. It was drafted and implemented in… hold your breath – 1860-1862! It has around 20+ chapters and more than 550 sections. It too has been amended many times. The great thing about the IPC then was that these laws were very broadly defined. This suited the British in applying laws against Indians as they wished. So for any new crime discovered – the same laws would fit pretty nicely for them. That had its own advantages for “rulers”. Today it is considered to be outdated toothless tiger at best. The reason is not difficult to fathom. Most of the high-profile criminals get away with loads of criminal cases against them (running at various levels of criminal courts), whereas similar or lesser crimes do not help the poorer ones get bail for years. If not for the ridiculously useless laws – could law enforcement agencies get away with such differentiated behavior? Nah.
The point I am making here is – has such big constitution and such voluminous laws prevented corruption/criminal activities? What one law does – the other conveniently negates it (or conveniently bypasses it). A detailed constitution was created to ensure everyone was represented and no one could take undue advantage of vulnerability of smaller sections of society. But has it helped even a wee bit? Criminals often roam free and fight elections (and win) under the noses of these heavy laws – the laws just seem helpless in their current state. Nothing seems to be stopping people charged of corruption making it big in this “land of opportunities”. So what good are so many confusing laws? Ask any criminal mind or a lawyer - a good sign for corrupt ones to prosper is to have many laws created – that creates more cracks and holes. If having many laws could help – India, with its oversized constitution and great legendary IPC, would be the most idealistic country in the world. Huh.
Plainly speaking, the corrupt have become powerful thanks to us having so many governing principles and laws. There is an antidote to everything in our laws and such mammoth set of laws make for a perfect breeding ground for a corrupt society. With all due respects to the people who made them – their intentions may have been noble… unfortunately their future generations weren’t.
“In a state where corruption abounds, laws must be very numerous” Tacitus
Indira’s rise to power and her dictatorship style
“Corruption is authority plus monopoly minus transparency.”
Fact remains that the kind of leadership does define the style or form of governance. We will talk about it further down in this article. You see, India did start off pretty well for itself after independence. With Indira Gandhi, we had a leader who was not actively involved in independence struggle herself and did not share the same thoughts as her predecessors. She introduced a new style of leadership in the life of Independent India – one where she (and her stooges) had almost absolute power. She was a dictator to some degree. She may have had her reasons to choose that path – like being one of only few women leader/s amongst “wolfish” men, or her being the daughter of ex-PM and hence the need to prove that she was a leader too, or perhaps because she was leading people who thought they had more right to leading the party than she herself, and similar such reasons. Whatever it may be – she embarked on a path that probably marked the end of the breed of leaders who were thinkers and who believed in the moralistic society/country that they had fought for. And remember, Congress party then meant the entire political class – well – almost. You either would have to blindly follow her or move away. So started the era of “Chamcha politics” in India
That era decidedly drove away the intellectuals away from politics and that left a huge hole in our nation’s political spectrum. The lesser mortals (lechers’) quickly filled the gap. These recruits would fulfill every whim and fancy of Indira & Sanjay (her son). Her style of functioning was totalitarian. Written law was overwritten by wishes of the lady and that led to lot of corrupt/criminal methods used. Over a period of time these types of people became rich and powerful through corrupt means/ways and that trend got magnified to larger proportions with time… leading to today’s situation.
It is said that power corrupts, but actually it's truer that power attracts the corruptible. The sane are usually attracted by other things than power.” David Brin quotes (American science-fiction writer b.1950)
From a political standpoint – there is no denying the fact that Indira Gandhi was the one who started the rut we find ourselves today in. She deliberately ignored (in-fact protected the perpetrators) the trend of corruption/criminalization seeping into politics. That suited her. India has deteriorated ever since she took over… I mean, look around you – how many intellectuals/thinkers do you find in politics… now look again – how many corrupt ones & criminals do you see? You should get your answer. Remember its Indira’s legacy to us.
"Power does not corrupt men; fools, however, if they get into a position of power, corrupt power." George Bernard Shaw
Bofors scandal
Now at the outset – let me state that I for one don’t claim to know if Bofors scam did actually take place, or was it created fictitiously for political benefits a by few idiots. Believers say there was a scam – non believers would argue we got the best in the grade “shoot & scoot” gun at the most competitive price and hence there was no reason for any kickback. And that’s an argument that won’t ever end. But if there was a survey done in India about the most popular scam - Bofors would win hands down. What an event that was?! Woof. For people in India who had woken up to the power of Television – it was unreal to see their beloved leader/s reputations being peeled off by their rivals. For the first time in India people “saw” how our leaders react to accusations, were able to see live debates on TV with various top politicians participating. As people watched in awe – the reactions of politicians were disappointing to say the least. It was as if – they were also humans after all!
Just to drive the point home, Bofors was the first political storm that was played live on TV. You see it was alright to hear about Rajiv Gandhi and his supporters denying the news of any corruption in the Bofors deal on radio. But it was altogether different to see them do it on TV. They all seemed so phony. We have had Telecom – 2G-3G, CWG etc. scams, but Bofors will always be the one which will invoke strongest emotions amongst people. Simply because that was the first time a politician, and a PM at that, who was accused of being a recipient of bribe. Suddenly the notion of PM’s position being sacrosanct was brutally destroyed. It was for the first time that people felt that those elected representatives who were chosen to govern were not beyond corrupt practices. Indian politician’s image was tarnished forever. I definitely believe that was the start of degeneration of this clan. Bofors scandal perhaps can be considered the event which made the largest dent to the position of highest political position in India (PM). It definitely broke barriers in people’s mind. It acted as myth-breaker for sure.
This case never got solved. It kept getting delayed and no one eventually got punished.  This gave the future generation of politicians the hope and feeling that perhaps they could also get away with corruption charges! All they had to do was delay the case and keep denying it. And the result? Well – we have seen multi-fold increase in such cases ever since. This scam proved to be a landmark and perhaps made the corrupt ones become brazen & unabashed about the way they did their “business”! Just so that you can gauge the effect of a delayed case … read the judgment on Bofors case against one of the accused below.
While we are busy discussing the Sensex and scams, India's poorest are barely surviving, thanks to an appalling governance deficit. In some areas of our country, we have no electricity, no roads, and no proper water facilities. 50 per cent of India lives on less than US $ 2 a day, 100 million children go to bed hungry every night; 62 per cent live without power. Can we allow this hard earned money of Aam Aadmi (common man) of India to be spent on these types of proceedings which are not going to do any good to them, after almost 25 years of the so called arms deal? The answer would be a big no… (And then the judge recited one of the famous lines of a song) "Woh afsana jise anjaam tak laana naa ho mumkin, use ik khubsurat mor dekar chhorna achha (A story that can't be brought to a logical conclusion or end is best left after giving it a beautiful bend) - Chief Metropolitan Magistrate (CMM) Vinod Yadav (while closing the case against Quattrocchi - Mar 2011)
Reservation (Mandal Commission)
“There are two Indias’ within this country… one of them is reserved, the others are deprived”
Whatever may be the justifications, Mandal commission recommendations to increase the quota from 27% to 49.5% for OBC and SC/CT changed the course and direction of this country… majority of it for worse. I have said this earlier and I will say this again, the social fabric of our nation has gone downhill ever since… unfortunately though. A lot has been written about this topic for ages – I will not eat up the space here for that again. But then we thought the reservations would bring in people who were talented but who did not get enough opportunities. Instead, majority of what nation gets are people who had no/minimal talent and yet got important posts and positions in the government. And Ladies and Gentlemen - the result have been disastrous. This country has never been the same – and I am ashamed.
I firmly believe one of the reasons for rise of corruption in this country is because the class of people who were considered downtrodden and who came in jobs – then started using every possible means available to them to play “catch-up”. They (and the others of other castes “inspired” by them) just vitiated the environment with corrupt ways and methods that they used. They feel it is their right to get everything that others have and quickly at that… and they don’t stop at anything. No wonder there is no reservation in Armed forces. Try and propose that and we shall see!
The beauty of being in reserved class in this country is when you are caught doing something wrong – you can claim innocence in the name of caste that you belong. Really – I am sick and tired of hearing people claim they are being “unnecessarily harassed/targeted” because they belong to Dalit caste or some such caste/group. Aren’t you? Though we all can see a lot of such people/cases around us, Mayawati perhaps epitomizes’ the way this class of people misused the powers they got – for their own benefit… albeit at the cost of national degradation. People who deal with government departments, police administration and similar such fields will know what I mean and how majority of such recruits are. Perhaps a good indicator is the increase in corruption index after Mandal commission came to be implemented in this country. That tells us something… Shibu Soren, Bangaru Laxman, Paswan, Mayawati, A Raja, KG Balakrishnan (ex-CJI of India), Madhu Koda (ex-CM of Jharkhand) – they all lead the light for the depressed class and perhaps are a fitting example of how rotten has system become post their rise in ascendancy.
Liberalization of Economy
Where money flows – corrupt swim”
Earlier, before 1991 era i.e. – India was on a socialist path with not much of money in the market. We had a pretty closed self-generated economy. Hence, we would only hear of scandals, riots, conspiracy theories etc. Come 1991, the markets in India opened up to outside world. A lot of capital flowed into our markets. With the population projected to reach 10 Billion in no time, the “who is who” of the industries flocked onto the Indian shores to setup their shops. That brought competition, more jobs, higher salaries, improved business and so on. All this meant there was money in the hands of consumer and there were good deals (with wider variety) available in the market to spend. It was boom time for the market and dare I say a “boom-boom” time for corrupt ones!
Suddenly there was money to be made in almost everything. From being middlemen for getting these foreign companies the government licenses, to acquiring real estate for them and such other logistics – these men/women made merry. You see, since it was an unexpected explosion of economy, old monitoring systems that were in place crashed pretty quickly. Companies in a hurry to set shop in India quickly understood that since the governing systems were yet to come in place – the quickest way to set “shop/s” in India was through these middlemen who would help get anything done faster for return in cash and kind. Note that these middlemen/Brokers were no one else but Politicians, quasi-politicians, government employees, private entrepreneurs and their likes.
Before the “Balance of Payments” crisis (in 1990-91), people had lesser money with no access to world media (those were Doordarshan days), had lesser expectations, got essential/other items at comfortable costs…overall a life with limited needs and limited means. Post-1991 economic liberalization people saw host of opportunities and saw others rising in social strata at frantic pace! That led to others wanting to rise quickly too in an increasingly competitive world. That led to taking shortcuts, which led most of them to corrupt ways. On the other hand, increase in market capacity, and the spending power led to lot of opportunities for unorganized sectors. These were primarily industries that dealt in cash and who would not pay taxes as prescribed as they would hide the actual quantum of business they did. In the process many unscrupulous people made a lot of dirty money.
This dirty money over a period of time has made their custodians not only rich – but also arrogant. And the need to maintain that power, they indulge in such activities time and again – leading to such sorry state of this country. It’s a bloody vicious circle.
Harshad Mehta scam
“Following the written system is passé… the unwritten does work!”
Perhaps the first scam of liberalized India was the Harshad Mehta Scam. Stock markets were suddenly gaining relevance and Harshad Mehta (the smart/shrewd chap that he was) had the first mover advantage! For records, he was accused and convicted for embezzlement of money to the tune of Rs 500 Billion by unfair trade practices in a highly unorganized Stock Market then. And just so that you get disappointed – 5000 Crore in those times was huge!! Such a figure was considered unreal in those times. How can anyone in India dwindle of 500 Billion Rupees? Hooh! Many innocent ones asked… “Does India have so much money where someone can coolly take away so much all alone?”!
As damning as the scam itself was, what followed was even more shocking. Harshad Mehta claimed that he paid 10 Million (1 Crore) to the Prime Minister of India to settle the matter. Though it could never be proved – Indians were ready to believe anything after Bofors scam. “Liberalized” media was all gung-ho about it. Harshad Mehta was interviewed time and again by various channels. Result? This crook came to be considered as a “smart” man who played around the system to make himself rich… something similar to what Dhirubhai Ambani did to setup Reliance Industries as critics (?) would say. People would give Harshad huge respect and he would be called in expert panels to discuss the financial and stock markets situation and trends! Whereas, he should have been locked and beaten to death, instead he was treated as a bloody hero in this country.
I used to be pissed off in those times every time someone heaped praise on Harshad Mehta. It was as if he has done some noble cause by pointing to a lacunae in the system and doing great patriotic service to the nation. He was slowly becoming an inspiration for people around then (He died pretty soon was some solace). I definitely believe that portrayal of this “scamster” as a hero was one of the mistakes on the part of us Indians. Media should have treated him as a criminal – than a hero. I can even today hardly find anyone who remembers Harshad and feels “bad” about what he did. But then, that is how he was portrayed then. On top of his oh (!) such jingoistic act – he became another catalyst in helping lower the esteem of the chair of PM.
The example that he set and the way he was projected led many to believe that it was alright to play around with existing systems and make money. People just took him as a role model. And most of corrupt ones in market have prospered using his model.
Rise of Local/State level parties & Coalition Govts
“When the people fear the government there is tyranny, when the government fears the people there is liberty.” Thomas Jefferson
For India, 1984 would definitely be considered as a year of great importance. Indira Gandhi got shot, which resulted in riots of unheard proportions. This led to polarization of electorate in Congress’s favor in Lok Sabha elections. That left the country virtually without any opposition parties. Fathom this – out of 545 seats in Parliament, Indian National Congress got 414 Seats and the largest opposition party was a regional party - TDP (Telugu Desam Party) with 30 seats (BJP – a new party – got only 2 seats then).
This was a major setback to the democratic framework of this country. This was the beginning in many ways of the rise of localized/regional parties. Congress fell from its high grounds in 1989 elections by winning only 190+ seats (down from 414)! In lack of any other national party in the scene – the direct beneficiaries of congress’s loss of face was the smaller parties – majority of them regional ones. Janata Dal (a new party formed by merger of Jan Morcha, Janata Party, Lok Dal and Congress (S)) won a handsome 140+ seats). Janata Dal was a part of a coalition group called “National Front” that was formed before elections and had 5 parties in it (Janata Dal, Lok Dal, DMK, TDP, & AGP). National Front together got simple majority in that election and formed the government with support from BJP and Communist parties supporting from outside. Note that 4 out of 5 parties that formed the National Front were regional/state parties. This, as stated earlier, was the beginning of what I think was a rotten phase in Indian Politics… and which, in my view, is still continuing.
As with most of the coalition arrangements earlier, this coalition too disintegrated pretty quickly, leading India towards more chaos. Every government since has been a coalition government with those smaller parties calling the shots and extracting maximum benefits in the event (in form of money and ministries). So there was a Shibu Soren, a Mamata, a Jaya, a Mann, a Gawda, a Maya, a Mulayam, Abdullah and oh many others – who had the major party leading the coalition under their thumbs. Consider this - in 1984 there were only 24 regional parties who polled small percentages of vote in national elections. This rose to 100+ parties in 2004. So, in 20 years the regional parties who polled some percentage of votes rose by almost 4-5 times!
Corruption spread its roots in these times and has settled down nicely ever since. Dirty games were played behind the doors of power, with cash (to the tune of Billions) paid to singular MPs and MLAs to keep them supporting the ruling coalition. When that did not satisfy the hunger of the corrupt ones – they started demanding a place in council of Ministers. Hence, a safer root was established – i.e. to give certain ministries to supporting/smaller parties. Imagine, ministries were no more allotted to people who had the necessary experience or caliber to make and execute policies – they were now given to supporting parties based on the “numbers” they brought in! The parties would then decide who to appoint as ministers. Eventually, what should ideally have been a Council of Ministers formed at the behest of PM and reporting into PM became a Council of Ministers, reporting into their Party bosses and accountable to them… and only them! And today a Minister first sends resignation as “Minister” to his/her Party “High command” and only when it is “approved” by the bosses is it sent to PM. The smaller parties have become so powerful that the policies of the country are being made based on their silly regional considerations. Central government has become just a pawn in the hands of these parties who pull strings whenever needed. Almost all the scams in the country (in Railways, in Telecom, in textile, in agriculture, in defense… you name it) were led by Ministers from regional parties. CWG and Coal scam are not restricted to Congress alone – every single one of them is involved across party lines – both Central as well as State administrators/representatives.
It is my firm belief, that rise of regional parties have been directly proportional to India’s rise in Corruption index.
A weak current PM
There was a time when Prime Minister of the country was considered the most powerful and the most able person. I think Rajiv Gandhi’s era changed the perception. He was the first one who became a PM not because he had shown some great skills. He was anointed the Leader because of his lineage. He was followed by VP Singh – who had no power of his own (with Devi Lal breathing under his neck). Chandrashekhar’s ascendency to PM position was the biggest joke played on Indian people (similar to Charan Singh’s tenure). I mean how can a party with 64 MPs even get near ruling any government? 64 is only 1/9th of the total seats in Lok Sabha. It was a farce. But that is how low politics had fallen in those times. Perhaps the last PM who ran the government with some authority was PV Narsimha Rao. He was an astute man with great organizational skills. His shortfall was that he was not a mass leader and hence had limitations! What we then saw was a mockery of democracy – we had PMs from two small regional parties – Deve Gawda and IK Gujral (they were part of United Front Coalition). Both were utterly useless, who lacked any personality to lead the country. Thankfully, they survived only for small periods. Some consolation that. The institution of Prime Minister’s position took a royal beating all this while. But then came, Atal Behari Vajpayee. Let’s me say this – he was the first PM after Inidra Gandhi who could be called a mass leader. He was a learned man and a very able parliamentarian and administrator. But the spark he had shown in his stint as a PM for 13 days (before Deve Gawda) and 1 year after IK Gujral was all gone when BJP ran government from 1999 to 2004… thanks to the realities of coalition management! Vajpayee’s reputation took a beating all the while – eventually making him look helpless in front of minnows like Mamata, Jaya, Modi, Thakeray etc. It was sad to see him suffer – but the fact is – he did not have a clue and looked lost. We thought it was sad also to see the Chair of PM not having the power to run his government as he would want to. He chair of PM looked weak… very weak. I could not think it would go any lower… but I was not prepared for the severe jolt that came.
When Congress came back to power again with support from unlikely partners (like DMK and Communists) – they played the biggest joke on the people – by “nominating” Dr Manmohan Singh for the post of PM. He, a notable economist and architect of liberalized economy in India, had never shown any administrative skills. He was neither a mass leader nor a very able parliamentarian if I may say so. He was just a pawn placed in front of the public to lead them. Nothing could have beaten the position of PM to ground than that decision.
Over a period of time – he has shown some brilliance in negotiating the policy making – but eventually he was exposed and he just lost control of his Council of Ministers. Nobody listened to him nor bothered about him – be it Congress party or the coalition partners. His Ministers ran their Ministries as their personal fiefdom and which eventually led to them looting the country at will. Not had this country seen so many scams in a decade as perhaps under his stewardship. He was considered to be a weak person and he has proved to be one. 
Vajpayee, it could be argued, had no precedent to look at while managing a coalition successfully. He somehow completed his term but set a very bad precedent for Manmohan Singh to follow. What bad precedent? Well – how do you justify reserving ministries for parties? Is it not akin to giving bribes? I would have been happier if they were given cash rather than making the country suffer because of idiots donning the head of ministry positions. This model was picked by Congress and similarly distributed ministries as asked for by these silly parties. There was only one problem though… Dr Manmohan was/is no Vajpayee – and hence his Ministers gave two-hoots about his views and his position as PM.
Dr Singh comes across as helpless and spineless in adversity. He has shown an utterly weak personality. He perhaps is exactly the opposite of what personality trainers would advise you to be! He doesn’t stand upright, shakes hands feebly, has stiff neck, rarely (if ever) smiles, his eyes always seem to be still, he seems lost in a crowd of leaders… and so on. Now add to it a barely audible voice and you have painted a very good picture of a man who is weak, indecisive and without authority. He hardly ever takes a firm decision. And when he does – no one listens. I have no hesitation in saying that along with rise of state/local parties (which I love to call “Tichpukia parties”) having a visibly spineless PM has been the ultimate killer for this country and has led to powerful people calling the shots.
Summary
“Corruption and hypocrisy ought not to be inevitable products of democracy, as they undoubtedly are today” Mahatma Gandhi
Today, we are a society that is corrupt, unethical, egoistic, violent and immoral.
I am no one to preach anyone about corruption and its ill effects. And that is not the intention here. The intention was to look at the top few reasons for disintegration of our society and the lower moral values that we have come to embrace off-late. Don’t blame the politicians alone for this malice. Fact is, they had the opportunity to loot and they went ahead and did. I am not sure you and I would be able to resist if put in the same situation i.e. if there were millions to be made and it was on the table to be picked up. Let us not fool ourselves. We are all the same. We are all corrupted to the core.
The only glimmer of hope lies with the younger generation, the toddlers of society. It is through them that I am hoping to see the change. But for that we need to realign. We need to find ways to find the right ways to inculcate the right habits and morals in our kids. When kids make a mistake we should reprimand them, when they speak ill of others – we should be correcting them, when they show disrespect to anyone elder, we need to punish them… and with such similar corrective measures, we also need to instill in them the basic tenets of a good human being - being honest, moral, ethical, humble & honorable. If we look back at our own upbringing – I am sure it won’t be a difficult task. If we “will” – we will!
“I will not let anyone walk through my mind with their dirty feet.” Mahatma Gandhi
Think about it…
Its Montoo..
(Oct 2012’ to 31st Dec 2012’)

The MoSh duo – Modi & Shah!

The MoSh duo – Modi & Shah!

In 1980’s a hardcore band “Scream” led by lead singer popularly called “Bad Brains” (Paul Hudson) sang a typical hardcore aggressive song “Total Mash”. Due to the way “mash” was pronounced by the lead singer, the fans heard it as “MoSh” and then began this great movement of heavy metal hard rock “MoShing”, which typically would mean people and fans would bump each other, collide, jostle and make violent moves as part of dancing routine! Little did we know that MoSh would one day rock India… and how!
 
So why am I bringing this dance form today? Well, simply because our country has taken to MoShing as never before! Majority of our country is swiveling to the MoSh form and has been rocking and disrupting every known norm with their abrasive and disruptive ways. On the way, establishing new order in the way country behaves and works! In our case, the Rock-star of this MoSh group has to be Modi, with Shah being the rock band Manager… the brain behind the popularity of the Rockstar himself. They together form the most dynamic duo referred to here as “MoSh”. And they have surely caused huge disruptions!
 
We know so much about our PM Narendra Modi now (some facts… and a lot of it fictional as we know). So I am not going to waste your time here talking about him. But I am sure not many know about Shah as much as they should by now. Again, it will suffice to say – if Modi is the undisputed “face” of this band, Shah is the one that makes it work. I will try and explain why I think so… and why this MoSh duo will be around for very long time… like it or not. It’s hence better to understand them better – not as individuals alone… but their impact as a pair!
 
MoSh: The bond!
 
Even before he won his first Assembly elections in 1997, Shah was a successful business man and was part of his family’s business. He ofcourse, like most of the BJP people, was RSS worker since early days. It is in one of the RSS functions that he met Narendra Modi for the first time – way back in early 1980s (when Modi was RSS Pracharak in Ahmedabad). So what is RSS? It’s important to understand RSS and its known history briefly. Let me try and summarize quickly for benefit of people who aren't aware. 
 
RSS (Rashtriya Swayam Sevak Sangh) is primarily "supposed to be" a social organization that works on spreading the message of Hinduism and its values - in India and across the world. It is an organization that claims to be non-political and meant to be devoted to social work primarily. One of its main & stated objective is to create a Hindu Rashtra (country) of what we know as our country today. RSS was founded in 1925 and in its time since then it has also been banned a few times for various reasons (once by the British and a few times by Congress Governments over period of time). The first time it was banned in Independent India was in 1948, by order of then Home Minister, Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel, because RSS was found to be spreading hatred amongst Hindus - against the Mahatma Gandhi. That eventually led to one of its members (Nathuram Ghodse) killing Gandhi - it is said. During and immediately after partition, RSS was found involved in  violence - in the name of taking revenge from Muslims. Patel, the Home Minister then, was deeply anguished. He supported RSS and the work they did till that time. But even he was fed-up eventually with the violent streak in them and for their involvement in Mahatma Gandhi’s murder. In Patel’s words in his letter written in 1949 to RSS head Golwalker “Even an iota of sympathy of the Government or of the people no more remained for the RSS. In fact the opposition grew. Opposition turned more severe, when the RSS men expressed joy and distributed sweets after Gandhiji’s death. Under these conditions it became inevitable for the Government to take action against the RSS”. RSS was then banned.
 
To lift the ban on RSS, Patel forced RSS to write their constitution and give in writing to the government (way back in 1949) that they would not enter political field ever and any RSS worker (Pracharak, Swayam Sevak etc) who wishes to join mainstream politics will cease to be RSS functionary member. RSS agreed to make Terms & Conditions for their own organization (a constitution to define their own activities). And finally, after all the assurances, the Cabinet then decided to lift the ban in 1949. It is hence that RSS principally does not take “official” plunge into Indian Politics overtly, but as we all know, it has done so regularly through “Bhartiya Jan Sangh” earlier and later with “Bhartiya Janata Party”. It has always encouraged best of their workers to go and join the political party. Ofcourse, we have seen many great and able political leaders from their flock in the past and some of them living currently as well, like Atal Behari Vajpayee, LK Advani etc... and inspite of my great opposition to them – I must add Narendra Modi to the list. They all have done a lot of work for RSS in their youth and though they officially went into BJP, they continue to be bound by the common thought process and principles of this organization ingrained in them. So much about RSS...
 
Anyways, getting back to my subject here - Amit Shah, as usual with majority of BJP political figures in those days, joined Akhil Bhartiya Vidya Peeth (ABVP, a student wing of RSS-BJP). After a brief stint of student politics with ABVP, he formally joined BJP in 1986 (even before Modi took the fateful plunge)! In the years to follow, he rose through the ranks in various youth organizations of the party and also played a great role (along with Modi) in LK Advani’s election in 1991! Advani at that time was one of the rising stars of Hindu Nationalism, and indeed the dominant force within BJP. If BJP has risen from a mere 2 member (elected) party in mid-1980s to forming government in late-1990s, it is thanks to the great push that Advani provided on the back of Ram Janm Bhoomi issue (Ayodhya Ram Temple issue). Anyways, Modi and Shah caught the eyes of Advani for their excellent organizational & election management work during his 1991 elections. So, when BJP formed government in Gujarat for the first time in 1995, he gave them specific tasks. They were asked to find ways to never lose another election in Gujarat. It is here that MoSh duo really came close and worked on many out-of-the-box strategies to strengthen the party at grass-roots level. For instance, they targeted rural and taluka areas and picked the leaders who had lost previous Pradhan (Srapanch/ Village level leader) elections in each village. These candidates were persuaded to join BJP. The entire might of RSS and BJP was then put to work with them in their area. Such dedicated focus to individual candidates and specific areas slowly turned these 2nd rung candidates into winning prospects. And as expected - the turnaround started to happen. These BJP candidates started winning in their villages whenever elections were due. MoSh duo then concentrated at Taluka, district and town/city levels and used similar formula to win key seats at that level. People must remember that Congress had great hold over rural Gujarat areas in those times. They still do to a large extent. However, excellent strategies of this MoSh duo is credited for turning around the elections based on "set pieces" they had worked hard to put together over those 2-4 years. In parallel, the duo also targeted all government run institutions like elections for president of Cooperative banks, sports bodies etc and put BJP people in key posts whenever they fell vacant. The takeover was being done piece by piece. Congress (like the then BJP stalwarts) did not realize how their support base started to vanish! But even as MoSh were rising in stature in BJP’s corridors of power (and in Gujarat unit especially), they quickly realized the need to move to next level i.e. if they wanted to make large scale impact. It is well known that Modi convinced Keshubhai Patel (and the then central leadership of BJP) to allow Amit Shah to fight a by-election of Gujarat Assembly in late 1990s. Keshubhai, a wily politician that he was, did not know what was to come next though… and how this one step would be a trigger of his own downfall (decimation?) down the years!
 
MoSh: Set pieces
 
Amit Shah ofcourse won the elections with handsome majority. With Amit Shah entrenched in Gujarat government, Modi slowly moved to BJP’s national level politics. He was made General Secretary of the party. It is here that he started making name for himself, which was till then confined in Gujarat alone. He worked hard, very hard in fact. The stroke of luck wasn't far away - and it did "knock" at his door - in form of 2001 Bhuj earthquake. Keshubhai Patel (then CM of Gujarat) was blamed for not managing the rehabilitation process post this massive natural disaster. Loss in a key by-election (of Gujarat) in that year prompted BJP Central Leadership to look for alternatives for Keshubhai Patel. There were many tall and worthy aspirants within BJP ranks then. But it is here that LK Advani played his card. He proposed the name of Narendrabhai Modi for CM (Chief Minister) post. There was immediate opposition to his name ofcourse not only because he had no experience in any government position till that time, but he was also seen as an arrogant & autocratic leader (even then)! However, no candidate/ aspirant otherwise had support of majority of Gujarat BJP MLAs. And because there was no other alternative (called the TINA factor “There Is No Alternative”)… and also because of very strong backing from Advani (Note: Vajpayee was not so enthused), Modi was sent to Gujarat to take over Chief Ministership. Advani had seen the way the MoSh duo managed elections first-hand and with an election due in a year (2002-03), Advani believed that this duo could turn the post-Bhuj situation around. But even before they could do anything "luck" knocked again, Gujarat was back in the news again – and not for any good reason. Gujarat saw one of the worst riots recorded in Indian history (March/April 2002). The riots were triggered by a gruesome incident in Godhra (a city in Gujarat), where a train compartment was burnt purportedly by Muslim villagers nearby. The riots that followed were called an emotional “reaction” of Hindus to “action” of Muslims in Godhra (Modi quote as per SIT report in Supreme Court: Kriya pratikriya ki chain chal rahi hai. Hum chahte hain ke na kriya ho, aur na pratikriya). A lot of innocent people from both communities got butchered. Hindus ofcourse dominated the 3-5 day riots (and subsequent outbreaks of violence in next few months), ostensibly with support from the then Modi Government. Ofcourse, this charge has seen its ups and downs and the last of the charges were removed as soon as Modi Government came to power in Delhi (2014).
 
But that is not important here as it has been debated threadbare and courts have spoken, so no point in going over it any further. Point is, Modi-Shah duo clearly saw even this adverse situation as an opportunity and declared elections in Dec 2002, much before their term was to end. That was a master stroke on hindsight! Even if they were not involved in instigating or tactically supporting the riots (and as I said, courts have given them clean-chit more or less, in lack of any evidence anyways), they never made any attempt to dispel the notion. They knew well – in a Hindu dominated Gujarat - that high emotions prevailing at that time would only benefit them. And with both Modi and Amit Shah stoking Anti-muslim sentiment in their speeches (and one can look at archive of their speeches then to validate), they decimated the opposition to limit them to only 50 odd seats. BJP got 2/3rd majority in the assembly… ringing in the “MoSh” era in Gujarat. Amit Shah became the youngest cabinet minister of Gujarat with as many as 12 key portfolios at one time, the highest number of portfolios amongst the entire cabinet. If there was some opposition to MoSh left within BJP’s Gujarat group, it was quickly and systematically decimated behind the scenes. The MoSh duo went from strength to strength over period of more than a decade, before (I think) Shah asked Modi to consider getting into national level politics. It helped that BJP looked listless and leaderless by 2010-11! The duo floated the idea with RSS and got their backing. However, the stain of riots was still hanging over them and they had no clear path to push Modi as a national level leader across the country with that sword hanging over them.
 
However, if you did observe, it is in 2011-12 that we started seeing a more assertive Modi in view. He was no more a CM of Gujarat, but was taking active interest in national issues/ politics. He had views on Kashmir; on Corruption in Central Government, on social issues across the country etc. He started walking out of meetings called by Central Government of State CMs and did it on more than one occasion due to one or other point of disagreement with Central Government’s policy against what he termed “cooperative federal structure”. He started talking increasingly about democratic, republic & federal structure of India and kept talking about corruption in Central Government in comparison to strong governance record in Gujarat. He successfully differentiated between pathetic situation of India (and other states) with Gujarat. It looked as if Gujarat was not actually India – but a “La-La” dreamland some place far off! He kept talking about progress of Gujarat (ignoring the fact that they were not in number one position in any of the reported areas/ metrics). Refer to the article I wrote in 2014 dispelling the assertions that Gujarat was the “Oh!” such shining armor in India’s artillery (my Article - “NaMo's Command - I am going to Serve you”). Anyways, as per plan – a section of media started playing up Modi and one could suddenly see Modi more on TV than ever before. He seemed pretty content with his Gujarat CM position till then, but the country now started to notice the change - slowly but surely. A few months down the line, we started seeing live telecast of his political rallies across Gujarat and then other parts of the country… in UP, in Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Punjab, Uttrakhand, Karnataka, Jharkhand etc. All this was much publicized in media. The drumming up had its impact, so much so that at whenever the then BJP President had a press meet, he would have one standard question to “dodge”… “Is Narendra Modi your PM candidate in 2014 general elections”? And the standard answer would always be, “The party will collectively decide”. Well, party never got a chance to decide really. As is the duo’s wont, they almost forced the decision on Rajnath Singh (the then BJP President). And then came the moment, when Modi was indeed declared BJP’s PM candidate… and that too much ahead of general (Lok Sabha) elections in 2013. It all felt like a coup, well as close to it as we have ever seen in India at least!! Ofcourse, Congress had the same moment in 1966, when after Lal bahadur Shastri’s unfortunate death, Indira Gandhi stumped Morarji Desai to become the head of Congress Legislative Party! That was a bigger coup in my view as it was within the incumbent government… and there was a taller leader (like Morarji) who bit dust! But in my living memory – I had never seen such takeover in India playing live in front of my eyes…
 
MoSh: The Giant Leap
 
Anyways, what we witnessed then was a media blitz… a strong “Modi” storm that took everyone by surprise and left people in awe! This, my friends, was trademark of Amit Shah’s stamp on it! He knew Modi’s power of oratory and his ability to connect with common people with his speeches! And boy, did he pull people! Phew. For me – it was so very exciting. I mean after long – here was a political leader, who could just make people come to his rallies and listen! I don’t think any political leader apart from Nehru, Kamraj, NTR, MGR, Indira or Atal had that hold over people! Congress kept thinking that country would see Modi through prism of him being 2002 riot accused… huh, how foolish they were. In fact, if anything - people were looking at Congress “more clearly” as being corrupt! And then came the change in narrative - “If not Modi – who?” The “TINA” factor, which had helped him ascend to Gujarat CM post was again being put to use at national level. Congress thought it could win somehow, but “Modi Tsunami” just swept them away. And how?!! Not that Congress leaders did not see it coming. I do think most of the leaders in Congress realized pretty soon, and hence some of their top leaders and ministers refused to fight election in 2014… Chidambaram, Kapil Sibal, Manish Tewari etc. Good for them that they did not… the result wouldn’t have changed one bit! MoSh had all bases more or less covered with their pitch of Modi Vs others! And ofcourse, Amit Shah swung it for BJP single-handedly with that one key decision late in the cycle, by making Modi fight elections from Varanasi (Uttar Pradesh). What was the impact of that one master stroke? Well, more than 1/4th of BJP seats (71/282) came from that one state (Uttar Pradesh), propelling them to become the single largest party in Lok Sabha! It was that huge!
 
But you may still say that this is Modi’s magic. Ah, that is so far away from truth. Let’s look at what was Amit Shah up to in the last few years before 2014. Remember, Amit Shah was charged with having orchestrated extra judicial killings of Sohrabuddin Sheikh, his wife & another criminal associate of his – with help of his accomplice DIG Vanzara? Well, true or not, this kept Congress fellows permanently hanging their tongues out to get the man they had come to know as the brain behind Modi. Without Amit Shah – Modi with all his skills would not be the same force and could be easy to tackle. Modi is perhaps a great administrator and knows how to get work done by his team. But an administrator can only do so if there is something to administer! People in the know agree that all the Modi campaigns are more or less the brainchild of the Shah fella! And Congress govt. started to work in earnest to get rid of Amit Shah. They let CBI loose on Sohrabuddin case. And in no time, Vanzara and other Police personnel were put behind bars. Recording of Amit Shah’s conversations with Vanzara were recovered with Shah referring to “Saheb” being worried about Sohrabuddin etc. Anyways, audio tapes are not generally permissible as evidence in courts – but it does make an impact on people’s mind! Shah was arrested in 2010 on charges of murder, extortion, kidnapping etc. It is said many Gujarat BJP leaders were extremely happy with this course of action since Shah was extremely autocratic. He did not have good relations with quite a few of them… but people tolerated him only because he had Modi (the Chief Minister) by his side. Shah eventually got bail, but was exiled from the state for 2 years!
 
One can only imagine, how Modi took this decision (to exile Shah), one of his most prolific supporters/ friend/ cabinet colleague in Gujarat. It must have felt as a personal failure for him. With all the power he thought he had, he could not help his friend. But again, this actually proved to be blessing in disguise for Amit Shah and eventually for Modi. Here is why I think so. What Modi did not understand about national politics in his stint as party General Secretary till 2001, Shah did pretty quickly in 2011-12! He toured the country – especially the northern parts. He realized that BJp was not that great a force anywhere – as it was in Gujarat. He also found that there was no coordination between BJP and RSS workers anywhere (a combination of cadres that was the backbone in Gujarat). And that was strange for him, since RSS & BJP were brother’s in arms and joined at the hip historically and worked so well together in Gujarat… but that was not so in other places. It did not take him long to understand what I have been calling since 2010 – “a political void” in central leadership of those times. The political void created because of the lack of a “political” leader. People think UPA won in 2009 because of great work they did. Unfortunately, that is a good example of living in fool’s paradise – which Congress subsequently paid price for! It was not the UPA which won in 2009… it was NDA which lost that election, if you know what I mean. BJP just did not have leadership to take on Government in power. A situation similar to what we may see in 2019, albeit with reversal of roles. Modi may not win because oh he has done magic (which we know he hasn’t on majority of the fronts he opened)… he will win majorly because there is no one in opposition at the moment to match him.
 
Anyways, back to 2012, Amit Shah perhaps understood that the country was yearning for someone to fill that void. After a decade of an economist being at the helm of a political post, people were genuinely fed-up according to me. Solution to needs of people cannot always be measured in terms of cost, there needs to be political sensitivity & humanitarian thoughts going into it. People longed for someone like Atal, Indira, Shastri, even Desai… who would take “political” decisions in the interest of people and make the economics of it work accordingly! The astute leader that he is – Shah sensed this rising angst in people and he must have known how opposite Modi was to the then dispensation of leaders… who did not speak the language of common people and neither seem to have a clue about their problems. He had seen the magic time and again in Gujarat! With Anna Hazare movement taking shape and Shah finally allowed to go back to Gujarat, the time was right for him to convince Modi to take the call. Not that Modi would have needed great convincing! It is then that the MoSh together created the master plan. They knew Anna was making the cracks in UPA image and waited for that movement to slow down. Once that happened, the hit the mike and loudspeakers! And lo-behold – the drama began! After winning Gujarat Elections in 2012-end, Modi threw his hat in the ring – even before BJP central leadership had uttered a word! And he did not wait for them to accept or deny anything – MoSh had already hit the campaign trail in early 2013.
 
MoSh: The Firm Grip
 
Now that I have fairly established how MoSh are joined together at hip or wherever, it was but natural for Amit Shah to make the next natural progression – get elected to Lok Sabha or Rajya Sabha. General elections were still far away and seats from Gujarat in Rajya Sabha would not fall vacant again so soon – so they went for the window immediately available. Amit Shah applied for one of the RS seat from Gujarat and ofcourse won. For a man who is known to plan big (and long) and who is the important cog in the wheel for aspirations of this Hindu Nationalist Government – it was an important step. He has done all he could as BJP President, he has colored key states saffron already, with BJP winning major Assembly elections in last 3+ years. I will try and establish why I think government needs him or let me put it the other way, why it is important for MoSh aspirations.
 
The MoSh grip was established in 2014 ofcourse, when Modi became the PM and handed over BJP President-ship to Shah! As soon as BJP won election, I had said that Amit Shah will be the new BJP National President. I also said they would find a way to keep Advani out of government. No great science there, it is how Modi and Shah always ruled, to have no potential challenger anywhere near them. Even in Gujarat, they quickly moved out all experienced leaders from Cabinet – and gave positions to only their supporters or new MLAs/MLCs. But this was national government, and I struggled to see how Modi (a protégé of Advani), would ever find a way to keep him out of new BJP Government. Ofcourse, I did not see another master step coming… which it eventually did. They suddenly declared that no one who has reached (or is beyond) age of 75 years will be in the government!!! Premise? Well, in a young India they said, they needed young people to take charge. Young people like Modi, Naidu, Jaitley etc – all 60+ years. In India being in 60s is still young in Politics, lest anyone had any doubts! Anyways, despite all criticism of the move, which was seen as a way to keep Murali Manohar Joshi, Yashwant Sinha and primarily LK Advani out of the cabinet, no one seemed to notice the larger agenda behind fixing not 70, not 73 or any other number, but 75! I told my wife that day - this man is already planning on winning 2019 and staying till 2024!
 
Modi, born on 17th Sep 1950 was 64 years of age then… i.e. May 2014. If things go as per plan, they will win 2019 hands-down, with mandate to rule till 2024. That is when Modi will be 74 years. He will only touch 75 years in Sep 2024! Now, if that is not a class act, I don’t know what is? If that is not long term planning, I don’t know what else could be termed so – in a volatile Political environment of India! They did their math, understood the importance of Modi being there for long and with this one age-bar notification - ensured he will remain available for full decade. Ofcourse they would need to win 2019 elections, which they should - by hook or by crook! From a time in 2009 when BJP looked listless, leaderless and a party with no one to give direction, BJP of 2014 was indeed a dramatic change!
 
Since, that historic moment for BJP, whatever they are touching is turning into gold! Victories in Assembly elections post that and have made them not only the biggest party in India – but the only party which has formed government on their own across multiple states. A scenario not many would have seen coming – given the pathetic coalition era in last couple of decades. One can possibly ignore aberrations like Delhi, Bengal, Punjab or Bihar where they lost elections (though they found a way to get back in Bihar). To be fair to them, they paid the price of aligning with Akali party in Punjab! And moreover, they knew they wouldn’t win there – and hence Amit Shah never planned for big rallies of Modi in Punjab (as is the case always for any election-bound state). The story is not as much of Congress’s continuous downfall as the steep rise of BJP’s stake in the country. A Hindu-nationalist party finally registering presence in a Hindu dominated country! Suddenly, secularism was being seen as being supportive of corrupt people or people who only supported Muslims and the ones who hated Hindus! Get into debate on secularism with anyone who believes in hardline Hindu nationalism and they will quickly turn the debate towards corruption… as if they are two sides of the same coin! Support for minority groups (read as support for Muslims) is now synonyms with Secularism and termed as Muslim appeasement. And Muslim appeasement now means being anti-national!
 
MoSh: Future
 
With popularity of Modi firmly established and being in power till 2024 more or less certain, they started planning ahead i.e. Life after Modi (as PM). But there is no one MoSh trusts and neither will they build any 2nd level of leaders. The two trust only themselves, think only they are the only saintly figures in the world with right to rule (oops, serve). Have they built any next layer of leader who can take charge? Is there anyone in BJP today who has that stature? Ok, let’s see who are the challengers or worthy persons for the post as we see today? Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley, or a long shot of Smriti Irani or Ravi Shankar Prasad. Quickly, Sushma and Jaitley will be on the wrong side of 70s in 2024, with only 2-3 years before they reach 75 years. And Ravi Shankar Prasad though a Modi follower, is well – just say – too small a player. That leaves us with Smriti Irani as the possible candidate. But she will have to climb a few more ladders before she reaches that stage. I have a feeling, MoSh will allow her to get discredited with some or the other charge coming from Opposition (as they tactically did when she was HRD minister and was subsequently removed). Now with this scenario – who are they left with? This is where I want everyone to look at Amit Shah’s Rajya Sabha nomination! This according to me is another of the steps they have taken, which they will hope turns into a master stroke for BJP beyond 2024.
But why now one may wonder, what was the hurry? Well, all the Gujarat RS nominations were up for grabs now and would not be available again for another 6 years. He could have fought Lok Sabha elections in 2019 (and would still do I think). He would win hands down from Gujarat. He is the only leader in Gujarat Assembly who has consistently won by more margins from his constituency than even Modi has from his chosen one. But if I read the situation correctly, there are 2 key reasons for making this move to RS now – a short term and a long term goal.
Modi currently lacks control over Rajya Sabha functioning which has off-late become a pain area for government. And MoSh do not like any situation which they cannot control. BJP is still some way away from getting majority in the upper house (which they will get anyways in next 2 years as more seats get vacant and are up for grabs). I have a feeling that couple of setbacks in Rajya Sabha in the last couple of years (returning of bills by RS to LS) due to absenteeism of BJP members in RS at the right time necessitates change of tact. Even as Modi has admonished BJP members for their slackness a few times, it apparently has not worked the usual magic. Shah’s entry in RS was then hatched, for achieving a short term goal immediately. Given that MoSh are a “feared” duo in their own ranks, it is hoped that the RS performance of BJP will get streamlined with Shah’s presence there. Modi has anyways done that in Lok Sabha and people attend Lok Sabha out of his fear. Given the kind of vice-like grip they have gotten over the party now, It is hence believed that fear of Shah will make BJP RS MPs attend the house regularly. Modi said as much in his speech post Amit Shah’s RS victory “The holidaying is over for BJP RS Members”! What better proof does one want?!
The long term objective is ofcourse 2024 and beyond. Who takes over as PM – if BJP wins? And I am betting for Amit Shah to take the mantle. I see no one else. But does Shah have that popularity to just ascend to the high seat? What happens if there is a need for coalition government? Will Shah get the backing given that he is a man highly disliked in general within the party and outside of it? This is where I think his election to the RS/ LS was becoming overdue. Here is why. Getting into government after 2019 would mean only 5 years for Shah to prove his skills in governance at national level. Given that there is high risk of anti-incumbency factor leading to lesser seats in 2024 elections, they may need some of the other smaller parties to support them in 2024. There is another key factor to why they may get lesser seats then. So, even though Modi will campaign for BJP – people would know that he won’t be the PM anymore. So they may split and vote for other parties. In which case, Shah would need some credibility in national politics to showcase. People in BJP fear him and may be made to toe the line, but what about others? To shove him to top ladder, MoSh would want Shah to come across as an astute national level administrator, with larger acceptance amongst people. That takes time. He is already proving to be Chanakya of current times to keep the Modi on top and proving he is on top of the “political aspect”. But Public acceptance or governance skills? That’s not easy to win … and one needs long time to prove that. My take on this is, before 2019, he will be the defacto floor manager of RS (a role played by Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi currently). He is needed as President of the party till 2019 elections if BJP wants to win… so he cannot officially hold any government post till then. But I see a lot of media feed coming in, in next couple of years about how a government policy was brain child of Shah, how well he was able to convince opposition in working together or how well he has led RS functioning for the government etc etc. You get the gist.  And then unleash him on the nation as the strongest minister with Home and defense minister posts. Logic – with country facing terrorism across the board, we need to align Defense and Home ministry so that they work in tandem. That would make him the defacto number two in the Cabinet and with Modi’s love for travel, Shah would get chance to lead the government in his absence quite a few times in next 5 years. With his skill around managing decks, he will slowly be “considered” worthy replacement of Modi. And if all goes well for MoSh, Shah will be the Prime Minister of India in 2024. Imagine that.

So what then happens to the “Mo” of the duo? My quick take on this fate is, Venkaiah Naidu would be made the President in 2022 (i.e. he would be 73 then) and in 2024, he will demit office for someone he has often called “The God’s gift” to the nation, the Aaka, Narendrabhai Modi. Naidu has sung many a parodies of Modi till date and he will be more than happy to make way for Modi in 2024! So 2024 or 2025, I see Amit Shah as PM of the nation and Modi as the President. The MoSh rath would continue its journey for another 5 years. Which then would mean a straight 15 years of rule for BJP and more so for MoSh. If there ever was a “Jai-Viru” friendship in real-life we don’t need to look too far away my friends. It is a friendship forged in 1980s would have by 2029 become the story of century! One may like it or not… unless something goes horribly wrong for them, this new MoShing form will continue to make us roll for long time dearies! As much as I see it happening, I don’t find that an appetizing future… not sure if you do.
Do think about it…
 
Its Montoo..
11th Aug 2017' – 6th Oct 2017'