The MoSh duo – Modi & Shah!

The MoSh duo – Modi & Shah!

In 1980’s a hardcore band “Scream” led by lead singer popularly called “Bad Brains” (Paul Hudson) sang a typical hardcore aggressive song “Total Mash”. Due to the way “mash” was pronounced by the lead singer, the fans heard it as “MoSh” and then began this great movement of heavy metal hard rock “MoShing”, which typically would mean people and fans would bump each other, collide, jostle and make violent moves as part of dancing routine! Little did we know that MoSh would one day rock India… and how!

 

So why am I bringing this dance form today? Well, simply because our country has taken to MoShing as never before! Majority of our country is swiveling to the MoSh form and has been rocking and disrupting every known norm with their abrasive and disruptive ways. On the way, establishing new order in the way country behaves and works! In our case, the Rock-star of this MoSh group has to be Modi, with Shah being the rock band Manager… the brain behind the popularity of the Rockstar himself. They together form the most dynamic duo referred to here as “MoSh”. And they have surely caused huge disruptions!

 

We know so much about our PM Narendra Modi now (some facts… and a lot of it fictional as we know). So I am not going to waste your time here talking about him. But I am sure not many know about Shah as much as they should by now. Again, it will suffice to say – if Modi is the undisputed “face” of this band, Shah is the one that makes it work. I will try and explain why I think so… and why this MoSh duo will be around for very long time… like it or not. It’s hence better to understand them better – not as individuals alone… but their impact as a pair!

 

MoSh: The bond!

 

Even before he won his first Assembly elections in 1997, Shah was a successful business man and was part of his family’s business. He ofcourse, like most of the BJP people, was RSS worker since early days. It is in one of the RSS functions that he met Narendra Modi for the first time – way back in early 1980s (when Modi was RSS Pracharak in Ahmedabad). So what is RSS? It’s important to understand RSS and its known history briefly. Let me try and summarize quickly for benefit of people who aren't aware. 

 

RSS (Rashtriya Swayam Sevak Sangh) is primarily "supposed to be" a social organization that works on spreading the message of Hinduism and its values - in India and across the world. It is an organization that claims to be non-political and meant to be devoted to social work primarily. One of its main & stated objective is to create a Hindu Rashtra (country) of what we know as our country today. RSS was founded in 1925 and in its time since then it has also been banned a few times for various reasons (once by the British and a few times by Congress Governments over period of time). The first time it was banned in Independent India was in 1948, by order of then Home Minister, Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel, because RSS was found to be spreading hatred amongst Hindus - against the Mahatma Gandhi. That eventually led to one of its members (Nathuram Ghodse) killing Gandhi - it is said. During and immediately after partition, RSS was found involved in  violence - in the name of taking revenge from Muslims. Patel, the Home Minister then, was deeply anguished. He supported RSS and the work they did till that time. But even he was fed-up eventually with the violent streak in them and for their involvement in Mahatma Gandhi’s murder. In Patel’s words in his letter written in 1949 to RSS head Golwalker “Even an iota of sympathy of the Government or of the people no more remained for the RSS. In fact the opposition grew. Opposition turned more severe, when the RSS men expressed joy and distributed sweets after Gandhiji’s death. Under these conditions it became inevitable for the Government to take action against the RSS”. RSS was then banned.

 

To lift the ban on RSS, Patel forced RSS to write their constitution and give in writing to the government (way back in 1949) that they would not enter political field ever and any RSS worker (Pracharak, Swayam Sevak etc) who wishes to join mainstream politics will cease to be RSS functionary member. RSS agreed to make Terms & Conditions for their own organization (a constitution to define their own activities). And finally, after all the assurances, the Cabinet then decided to lift the ban in 1949. It is hence that RSS principally does not take “official” plunge into Indian Politics overtly, but as we all know, it has done so regularly through “Bhartiya Jan Sangh” earlier and later with “Bhartiya Janata Party”. It has always encouraged best of their workers to go and join the political party. Ofcourse, we have seen many great and able political leaders from their flock in the past and some of them living currently as well, like Atal Behari Vajpayee, LK Advani etc... and inspite of my great opposition to them – I must add Narendra Modi to the list. They all have done a lot of work for RSS in their youth and though they officially went into BJP, they continue to be bound by the common thought process and principles of this organization ingrained in them. So much about RSS...

 

Anyways, getting back to my subject here - Amit Shah, as usual with majority of BJP political figures in those days, joined Akhil Bhartiya Vidya Peeth (ABVP, a student wing of RSS-BJP). After a brief stint of student politics with ABVP, he formally joined BJP in 1986 (even before Modi took the fateful plunge)! In the years to follow, he rose through the ranks in various youth organizations of the party and also played a great role (along with Modi) in LK Advani’s election in 1991! Advani at that time was one of the rising stars of Hindu Nationalism, and indeed the dominant force within BJP. If BJP has risen from a mere 2 member (elected) party in mid-1980s to forming government in late-1990s, it is thanks to the great push that Advani provided on the back of Ram Janm Bhoomi issue (Ayodhya Ram Temple issue). Anyways, Modi and Shah caught the eyes of Advani for their excellent organizational & election management work during his 1991 elections. So, when BJP formed government in Gujarat for the first time in 1995, he gave them specific tasks. They were asked to find ways to never lose another election in Gujarat. It is here that MoSh duo really came close and worked on many out-of-the-box strategies to strengthen the party at grass-roots level. For instance, they targeted rural and taluka areas and picked the leaders who had lost previous Pradhan (Srapanch/ Village level leader) elections in each village. These candidates were persuaded to join BJP. The entire might of RSS and BJP was then put to work with them in their area. Such dedicated focus to individual candidates and specific areas slowly turned these 2^nd rung candidates into winning prospects. And as expected - the turnaround started to happen. These BJP candidates started winning in their villages whenever elections were due. MoSh duo then concentrated at Taluka, district and town/city levels and used similar formula to win key seats at that level. People must remember that Congress had great hold over rural Gujarat areas in those times. They still do to a large extent. However, excellent strategies of this MoSh duo is credited for turning around the elections based on "set pieces" they had worked hard to put together over those 2-4 years. In parallel, the duo also targeted all government run institutions like elections for president of Cooperative banks, sports bodies etc and put BJP people in key posts whenever they fell vacant. The takeover was being done piece by piece. Congress (like the then BJP stalwarts) did not realize how their support base started to vanish! But even as MoSh were rising in stature in BJP’s corridors of power (and in Gujarat unit especially), they quickly realized the need to move to next level i.e. if they wanted to make large scale impact. It is well known that Modi convinced Keshubhai Patel (and the then central leadership of BJP) to allow Amit Shah to fight a by-election of Gujarat Assembly in late 1990s. Keshubhai, a wily politician that he was, did not know what was to come next though… and how this one step would be a trigger of his own downfall (decimation?) down the years!

 

MoSh: Set pieces

 

Amit Shah ofcourse won the elections with handsome majority. With Amit Shah entrenched in Gujarat government, Modi slowly moved to BJP’s national level politics. He was made General Secretary of the party. It is here that he started making name for himself, which was till then confined in Gujarat alone. He worked hard, very hard in fact. The stroke of luck wasn't far away - and it did "knock" at his door - in form of 2001 Bhuj earthquake. Keshubhai Patel (then CM of Gujarat) was blamed for not managing the rehabilitation process post this massive natural disaster. Loss in a key by-election (of Gujarat) in that year prompted BJP Central Leadership to look for alternatives for Keshubhai Patel. There were many tall and worthy aspirants within BJP ranks then. But it is here that LK Advani played his card. He proposed the name of Narendrabhai Modi for CM (Chief Minister) post. There was immediate opposition to his name ofcourse not only because he had no experience in any government position till that time, but he was also seen as an arrogant & autocratic leader (even then)! However, no candidate/ aspirant otherwise had support of majority of Gujarat BJP MLAs. And because there was no other alternative (called the TINA factor “There Is No Alternative”)… and also because of very strong backing from Advani (Note: Vajpayee was not so enthused), Modi was sent to Gujarat to take over Chief Ministership. Advani had seen the way the MoSh duo managed elections first-hand and with an election due in a year (2002-03), Advani believed that this duo could turn the post-Bhuj situation around. But even before they could do anything "luck" knocked again, Gujarat was back in the news again – and not for any good reason. Gujarat saw one of the worst riots recorded in Indian history (March/April 2002). The riots were triggered by a gruesome incident in Godhra (a city in Gujarat), where a train compartment was burnt purportedly by Muslim villagers nearby. The riots that followed were called an emotional “reaction” of Hindus to “action” of Muslims in Godhra (Modi quote as per SIT report in Supreme Court: Kriya pratikriya ki chain chal rahi hai. Hum chahte hain ke na kriya ho, aur na pratikriya). A lot of innocent people from both communities got butchered. Hindus ofcourse dominated the 3-5 day riots (and subsequent outbreaks of violence in next few months), ostensibly with support from the then Modi Government. Ofcourse, this charge has seen its ups and downs and the last of the charges were removed as soon as Modi Government came to power in Delhi (2014).

 

But that is not important here as it has been debated threadbare and courts have spoken, so no point in going over it any further. Point is, Modi-Shah duo clearly saw even this adverse situation as an opportunity and declared elections in Dec 2002, much before their term was to end. That was a master stroke on hindsight! Even if they were not involved in instigating or tactically supporting the riots (and as I said, courts have given them clean-chit more or less, in lack of any evidence anyways), they never made any attempt to dispel the notion. They knew well – in a Hindu dominated Gujarat - that high emotions prevailing at that time would only benefit them. And with both Modi and Amit Shah stoking Anti-muslim sentiment in their speeches (and one can look at archive of their speeches then to validate), they decimated the opposition to limit them to only 50 odd seats. BJP got 2/3^rd majority in the assembly… ringing in the “MoSh” era in Gujarat. Amit Shah became the youngest cabinet minister of Gujarat with as many as 12 key portfolios at one time, the highest number of portfolios amongst the entire cabinet. If there was some opposition to MoSh left within BJP’s Gujarat group, it was quickly and systematically decimated behind the scenes. The MoSh duo went from strength to strength over period of more than a decade, before (I think) Shah asked Modi to consider getting into national level politics. It helped that BJP looked listless and leaderless by 2010-11! The duo floated the idea with RSS and got their backing. However, the stain of riots was still hanging over them and they had no clear path to push Modi as a national level leader across the country with that sword hanging over them.

 

However, if you did observe, it is in 2011-12 that we started seeing a more assertive Modi in view. He was no more a CM of Gujarat, but was taking active interest in national issues/ politics. He had views on Kashmir; on Corruption in Central Government, on social issues across the country etc. He started walking out of meetings called by Central Government of State CMs and did it on more than one occasion due to one or other point of disagreement with Central Government’s policy against what he termed “cooperative federal structure”. He started talking increasingly about democratic, republic & federal structure of India and kept talking about corruption in Central Government in comparison to strong governance record in Gujarat. He successfully differentiated between pathetic situation of India (and other states) with Gujarat. It looked as if Gujarat was not actually India – but a “La-La” dreamland some place far off! He kept talking about progress of Gujarat (ignoring the fact that they were not in number one position in any of the reported areas/ metrics). Refer to the article I wrote in 2014 dispelling the assertions that Gujarat was the “Oh!” such shining armor in India’s artillery (my Article - “NaMo's Command - I am going to Serve you”). Anyways, as per plan – a section of media started playing up Modi and one could suddenly see Modi more on TV than ever before. He seemed pretty content with his Gujarat CM position till then, but the country now started to notice the change - slowly but surely. A few months down the line, we started seeing live telecast of his political rallies across Gujarat and then other parts of the country… in UP, in Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Punjab, Uttrakhand, Karnataka, Jharkhand etc. All this was much publicized in media. The drumming up had its impact, so much so that at whenever the then BJP President had a press meet, he would have one standard question to “dodge”… “Is Narendra Modi your PM candidate in 2014 general elections”? And the standard answer would always be, “The party will collectively decide”. Well, party never got a chance to decide really. As is the duo’s wont, they almost forced the decision on Rajnath Singh (the then BJP President). And then came the moment, when Modi was indeed declared BJP’s PM candidate… and that too much ahead of general (Lok Sabha) elections in 2013. It all felt like a coup, well as close to it as we have ever seen in India at least!! Ofcourse, Congress had the same moment in 1966, when after Lal bahadur Shastri’s unfortunate death, Indira Gandhi stumped Morarji Desai to become the head of Congress Legislative Party! That was a bigger coup in my view as it was within the incumbent government… and there was a taller leader (like Morarji) who bit dust! But in my living memory – I had never seen such takeover in India playing live in front of my eyes…

 

MoSh: The Giant Leap

 

Anyways, what we witnessed then was a media blitz… a strong “Modi” storm that took everyone by surprise and left people in awe! This, my friends, was trademark of Amit Shah’s stamp on it! He knew Modi’s power of oratory and his ability to connect with common people with his speeches! And boy, did he pull people! Phew. For me – it was so very exciting. I mean after long – here was a political leader, who could just make people come to his rallies and listen! I don’t think any political leader apart from Nehru, Kamraj, NTR, MGR, Indira or Atal had that hold over people! Congress kept thinking that country would see Modi through prism of him being 2002 riot accused… huh, how foolish they were. In fact, if anything - people were looking at Congress “more clearly” as being corrupt! And then came the change in narrative - “If not Modi – who?” The “TINA” factor, which had helped him ascend to Gujarat CM post was again being put to use at national level. Congress thought it could win somehow, but “Modi Tsunami” just swept them away. And how?!! Not that Congress leaders did not see it coming. I do think most of the leaders in Congress realized pretty soon, and hence some of their top leaders and ministers refused to fight election in 2014… Chidambaram, Kapil Sibal, Manish Tewari etc. Good for them that they did not… the result wouldn’t have changed one bit! MoSh had all bases more or less covered with their pitch of Modi Vs others! And ofcourse, Amit Shah swung it for BJP single-handedly with that one key decision late in the cycle, by making Modi fight elections from Varanasi (Uttar Pradesh). What was the impact of that one master stroke? Well, more than 1/4^th of BJP seats (71/282) came from that one state (Uttar Pradesh), propelling them to become the single largest party in Lok Sabha! It was that huge!

 

But you may still say that this is Modi’s magic. Ah, that is so far away from truth. Let’s look at what was Amit Shah up to in the last few years before 2014. Remember, Amit Shah was charged with having orchestrated extra judicial killings of Sohrabuddin Sheikh, his wife & another criminal associate of his – with help of his accomplice DIG Vanzara? Well, true or not, this kept Congress fellows permanently hanging their tongues out to get the man they had come to know as the brain behind Modi. Without Amit Shah – Modi with all his skills would not be the same force and could be easy to tackle. Modi is perhaps a great administrator and knows how to get work done by his team. But an administrator can only do so if there is something to administer! People in the know agree that all the Modi campaigns are more or less the brainchild of the Shah fella! And Congress govt. started to work in earnest to get rid of Amit Shah. They let CBI loose on Sohrabuddin case. And in no time, Vanzara and other Police personnel were put behind bars. Recording of Amit Shah’s conversations with Vanzara were recovered with Shah referring to “Saheb” being worried about Sohrabuddin etc. Anyways, audio tapes are not generally permissible as evidence in courts – but it does make an impact on people’s mind! Shah was arrested in 2010 on charges of murder, extortion, kidnapping etc. It is said many Gujarat BJP leaders were extremely happy with this course of action since Shah was extremely autocratic. He did not have good relations with quite a few of them… but people tolerated him only because he had Modi (the Chief Minister) by his side. Shah eventually got bail, but was exiled from the state for 2 years!

 

One can only imagine, how Modi took this decision (to exile Shah), one of his most prolific supporters/ friend/ cabinet colleague in Gujarat. It must have felt as a personal failure for him. With all the power he thought he had, he could not help his friend. But again, this actually proved to be blessing in disguise for Amit Shah and eventually for Modi. Here is why I think so. What Modi did not understand about national politics in his stint as party General Secretary till 2001, Shah did pretty quickly in 2011-12! He toured the country – especially the northern parts. He realized that BJp was not that great a force anywhere – as it was in Gujarat. He also found that there was no coordination between BJP and RSS workers anywhere (a combination of cadres that was the backbone in Gujarat). And that was strange for him, since RSS & BJP were brother’s in arms and joined at the hip historically and worked so well together in Gujarat… but that was not so in other places. It did not take him long to understand what I have been calling since 2010 – “a political void” in central leadership of those times. The political void created because of the lack of a “political” leader. People think UPA won in 2009 because of great work they did. Unfortunately, that is a good example of living in fool’s paradise – which Congress subsequently paid price for! It was not the UPA which won in 2009… it was NDA which lost that election, if you know what I mean. BJP just did not have leadership to take on Government in power. A situation similar to what we may see in 2019, albeit with reversal of roles. Modi may not win because oh he has done magic (which we know he hasn’t on majority of the fronts he opened)… he will win majorly because there is no one in opposition at the moment to match him.

 

Anyways, back to 2012, Amit Shah perhaps understood that the country was yearning for someone to fill that void. After a decade of an economist being at the helm of a political post, people were genuinely fed-up according to me. Solution to needs of people cannot always be measured in terms of cost, there needs to be political sensitivity & humanitarian thoughts going into it. People longed for someone like Atal, Indira, Shastri, even Desai… who would take “political” decisions in the interest of people and make the economics of it work accordingly! The astute leader that he is – Shah sensed this rising angst in people and he must have known how opposite Modi was to the then dispensation of leaders… who did not speak the language of common people and neither seem to have a clue about their problems. He had seen the magic time and again in Gujarat! With Anna Hazare movement taking shape and Shah finally allowed to go back to Gujarat, the time was right for him to convince Modi to take the call. Not that Modi would have needed great convincing! It is then that the MoSh together created the master plan. They knew Anna was making the cracks in UPA image and waited for that movement to slow down. Once that happened, the hit the mike and loudspeakers! And lo-behold – the drama began! After winning Gujarat Elections in 2012-end, Modi threw his hat in the ring – even before BJP central leadership had uttered a word! And he did not wait for them to accept or deny anything – MoSh had already hit the campaign trail in early 2013.

 

MoSh: The Firm Grip

 

Now that I have fairly established how MoSh are joined together at hip or wherever, it was but natural for Amit Shah to make the next natural progression – get elected to Lok Sabha or Rajya Sabha. General elections were still far away and seats from Gujarat in Rajya Sabha would not fall vacant again so soon – so they went for the window immediately available. Amit Shah applied for one of the RS seat from Gujarat and ofcourse won. For a man who is known to plan big (and long) and who is the important cog in the wheel for aspirations of this Hindu Nationalist Government – it was an important step. He has done all he could as BJP President, he has colored key states saffron already, with BJP winning major Assembly elections in last 3+ years. I will try and establish why I think government needs him or let me put it the other way, why it is important for MoSh aspirations.

 

The MoSh grip was established in 2014 ofcourse, when Modi became the PM and handed over BJP President-ship to Shah! As soon as BJP won election, I had said that Amit Shah will be the new BJP National President. I also said they would find a way to keep Advani out of government. No great science there, it is how Modi and Shah always ruled, to have no potential challenger anywhere near them. Even in Gujarat, they quickly moved out all experienced leaders from Cabinet – and gave positions to only their supporters or new MLAs/MLCs. But this was national government, and I struggled to see how Modi (a protégé of Advani), would ever find a way to keep him out of new BJP Government. Ofcourse, I did not see another master step coming… which it eventually did. They suddenly declared that no one who has reached (or is beyond) age of 75 years will be in the government!!! Premise? Well, in a young India they said, they needed young people to take charge. Young people like Modi, Naidu, Jaitley etc – all 60+ years. In India being in 60s is still young in Politics, lest anyone had any doubts! Anyways, despite all criticism of the move, which was seen as a way to keep Murali Manohar Joshi, Yashwant Sinha and primarily LK Advani out of the cabinet, no one seemed to notice the larger agenda behind fixing not 70, not 73 or any other number, but 75! I told my wife that day - this man is already planning on winning 2019 and staying till 2024!

 

Modi, born on 17^th Sep 1950 was 64 years of age then… i.e. May 2014. If things go as per plan, they will win 2019 hands-down, with mandate to rule till 2024. That is when Modi will be 74 years. He will only touch 75 years in Sep 2024! Now, if that is not a class act, I don’t know what is? If that is not long term planning, I don’t know what else could be termed so – in a volatile Political environment of India! They did their math, understood the importance of Modi being there for long and with this one age-bar notification - ensured he will remain available for full decade. Ofcourse they would need to win 2019 elections, which they should - by hook or by crook! From a time in 2009 when BJP looked listless, leaderless and a party with no one to give direction, BJP of 2014 was indeed a dramatic change!

 

Since, that historic moment for BJP, whatever they are touching is turning into gold! Victories in Assembly elections post that and have made them not only the biggest party in India – but the only party which has formed government on their own across multiple states. A scenario not many would have seen coming – given the pathetic coalition era in last couple of decades. One can possibly ignore aberrations like Delhi, Bengal, Punjab or Bihar where they lost elections (though they found a way to get back in Bihar). To be fair to them, they paid the price of aligning with Akali party in Punjab! And moreover, they knew they wouldn’t win there – and hence Amit Shah never planned for big rallies of Modi in Punjab (as is the case always for any election-bound state). The story is not as much of Congress’s continuous downfall as the steep rise of BJP’s stake in the country. A Hindu-nationalist party finally registering presence in a Hindu dominated country! Suddenly, secularism was being seen as being supportive of corrupt people or people who only supported Muslims and the ones who hated Hindus! Get into debate on secularism with anyone who believes in hardline Hindu nationalism and they will quickly turn the debate towards corruption… as if they are two sides of the same coin! Support for minority groups (read as support for Muslims) is now synonyms with Secularism and termed as Muslim appeasement. And Muslim appeasement now means being anti-national!

 

MoSh: Future

 

With popularity of Modi firmly established and being in power till 2024 more or less certain, they started planning ahead i.e. Life after Modi (as PM). But there is no one MoSh trusts and neither will they build any 2^nd level of leaders. The two trust only themselves, think only they are the only saintly figures in the world with right to rule (oops, serve). Have they built any next layer of leader who can take charge? Is there anyone in BJP today who has that stature? Ok, let’s see who are the challengers or worthy persons for the post as we see today? Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley, or a long shot of Smriti Irani or Ravi Shankar Prasad. Quickly, Sushma and Jaitley will be on the wrong side of 70s in 2024, with only 2-3 years before they reach 75 years. And Ravi Shankar Prasad though a Modi follower, is well – just say – too small a player. That leaves us with Smriti Irani as the possible candidate. But she will have to climb a few more ladders before she reaches that stage. I have a feeling, MoSh will allow her to get discredited with some or the other charge coming from Opposition (as they tactically did when she was HRD minister and was subsequently removed). Now with this scenario – who are they left with? This is where I want everyone to look at Amit Shah’s Rajya Sabha nomination! This according to me is another of the steps they have taken, which they will hope turns into a master stroke for BJP beyond 2024.

But why now one may wonder, what was the hurry? Well, all the Gujarat RS nominations were up for grabs now and would not be available again for another 6 years. He could have fought Lok Sabha elections in 2019 (and would still do I think). He would win hands down from Gujarat. He is the only leader in Gujarat Assembly who has consistently won by more margins from his constituency than even Modi has from his chosen one. But if I read the situation correctly, there are 2 key reasons for making this move to RS now – a short term and a long term goal.

Modi currently lacks control over Rajya Sabha functioning which has off-late become a pain area for government. And MoSh do not like any situation which they cannot control. BJP is still some way away from getting majority in the upper house (which they will get anyways in next 2 years as more seats get vacant and are up for grabs). I have a feeling that couple of setbacks in Rajya Sabha in the last couple of years (returning of bills by RS to LS) due to absenteeism of BJP members in RS at the right time necessitates change of tact. Even as Modi has admonished BJP members for their slackness a few times, it apparently has not worked the usual magic. Shah’s entry in RS was then hatched, for achieving a short term goal immediately. Given that MoSh are a “feared” duo in their own ranks, it is hoped that the RS performance of BJP will get streamlined with Shah’s presence there. Modi has anyways done that in Lok Sabha and people attend Lok Sabha out of his fear. Given the kind of vice-like grip they have gotten over the party now, It is hence believed that fear of Shah will make BJP RS MPs attend the house regularly. Modi said as much in his speech post Amit Shah’s RS victory “The holidaying is over for BJP RS Members”! What better proof does one want?!

The long term objective is ofcourse 2024 and beyond. Who takes over as PM – if BJP wins? And I am betting for Amit Shah to take the mantle. I see no one else. But does Shah have that popularity to just ascend to the high seat? What happens if there is a need for coalition government? Will Shah get the backing given that he is a man highly disliked in general within the party and outside of it? This is where I think his election to the RS/ LS was becoming overdue. Here is why. Getting into government after 2019 would mean only 5 years for Shah to prove his skills in governance at national level. Given that there is high risk of anti-incumbency factor leading to lesser seats in 2024 elections, they may need some of the other smaller parties to support them in 2024. There is another key factor to why they may get lesser seats then. So, even though Modi will campaign for BJP – people would know that he won’t be the PM anymore. So they may split and vote for other parties. In which case, Shah would need some credibility in national politics to showcase. People in BJP fear him and may be made to toe the line, but what about others? To shove him to top ladder, MoSh would want Shah to come across as an astute national level administrator, with larger acceptance amongst people. That takes time. He is already proving to be Chanakya of current times to keep the Modi on top and proving he is on top of the “political aspect”. But Public acceptance or governance skills? That’s not easy to win … and one needs long time to prove that. My take on this is, before 2019, he will be the defacto floor manager of RS (a role played by Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi currently). He is needed as President of the party till 2019 elections if BJP wants to win… so he cannot officially hold any government post till then. But I see a lot of media feed coming in, in next couple of years about how a government policy was brain child of Shah, how well he was able to convince opposition in working together or how well he has led RS functioning for the government etc etc. You get the gist.  And then unleash him on the nation as the strongest minister with Home and defense minister posts. Logic – with country facing terrorism across the board, we need to align Defense and Home ministry so that they work in tandem. That would make him the defacto number two in the Cabinet and with Modi’s love for travel, Shah would get chance to lead the government in his absence quite a few times in next 5 years. With his skill around managing decks, he will slowly be “considered” worthy replacement of Modi. And if all goes well for MoSh, Shah will be the Prime Minister of India in 2024. Imagine that.

So what then happens to the “Mo” of the duo? My quick take on this fate is, Venkaiah Naidu would be made the President in 2022 (i.e. he would be 73 then) and in 2024, he will demit office for someone he has often called “The God’s gift” to the nation, the Aaka, Narendrabhai Modi. Naidu has sung many a parodies of Modi till date and he will be more than happy to make way for Modi in 2024! So 2024 or 2025, I see Amit Shah as PM of the nation and Modi as the President. The MoSh rath would continue its journey for another 5 years. Which then would mean a straight 15 years of rule for BJP and more so for MoSh. If there ever was a “Jai-Viru” friendship in real-life we don’t need to look too far away my friends. It is a friendship forged in 1980s would have by 2029 become the story of century! One may like it or not… unless something goes horribly wrong for them, this new MoShing form will continue to make us roll for long time dearies! As much as I see it happening, I don’t find that an appetizing future… not sure if you do.

Do think about it…

 

Its Montoo..

11^th Aug 2017' – 6^th Oct 2017'