Financial Crisis: The Clueless Experts

It has been quite a while now since the world started discussing the economic and financial crisis. This crisis has dried up tons of ink and used up valuable paper (with print media going bonkers over it), used up “valuable time” of the “experts” explaining the Whys’ and  the Hows’ of the whole situation, eaten up many a number of hours of every human being’s life, gulped down billions and billions of dollars in form of “stimulating” packages, led to seemingly crooked entrepreneurs (like Raju Uncle) to finally call it a day, made many bankrupt and jobless, and more importantly continues to make everyone nervous – very nervous.

Come to think of it, what has the world achieved in all this discussion? Hmmm… Nothing… I mean, if you were to discount the heightened anxiety of any and everyone who is earning. Frankly, all those concepts of financial wisdom, economic sensitivity, sound business logic, hitherto streamlined Banking concepts etc have gone kaput. Money market, Share market, Forward trading, Forex Trading, Spot Market, Debt Funds, Mutual Funds have now become household names. Not to discount the popularity of our “beloveds” - Foreign Institutional Investors (FII), Domestic Investors, SEBI, Finance Ministry, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and hordes of their ilk. These have been the prime movers and shakers in this current situation. Not that anyone of them (RBI, SEBI etc) have any control over what is currently happening and what shape will the economies take in coming months. So RBI is bringing all the rates down (earlier they were taking it up), FIIs came in a big way, ran away even faster (and have been playing hide and seek since then), SEBI has no idea what stuck them and Finance Ministry has been trying to figure a way out of this (with stimulus packages, announcing reduction of taxes and levies). But they have also given up. Finally fed up of not being able to do much (and with no more clues on what can now be done) – Mr. P Chidambaram has left Finance Ministry and taken over Home Ministry, Commerce Minister (sitting in Davos, at the time of writing this article) is already talking about how nothing else can be done, and our Economist Prime Minister decided that he too cannot do anything on this and went ahead with his long pending Surgery. Strange isn’t it – when the entire world is gripped with this enormous life threatening economic problem – a country like ours does not feel the need to have even a permanent Finance Minister in place. So you see – we are left to fend for ourselves now. But, against what and against whom? Hmmm… now that’s a tricky question I have been asking myself for sometime now. Do you know the answers?

Alright, let’s get serious, shall we?

“Erstwhile” human “sentiments” like Panic, scare, shock, worry, skepticism, uncertainty, excitement, anticipation etc have continuously been associated to the Share Market entity. Even more so now. If you were to listen to daily broadcasts of share market – you will wonder if share market is indeed a weak emotional fool! There is panic as well as jubilation for every fall and rise of indices. Look at what’s happening these days. The Bulls and the Bears have been fighting a severely bloody battle. Some days the Bull overpowers the Bear and the market gains a few points and at others the lazy Bear gets back its strength and snatches those additional points that the Bull had won. It’s another matter that a few thousand Crores of Rupees go down the drain with every Bearish win. Not to say, a few more people going bankrupt. And thanks to the media glorifying every win of Bears – the “sentiments” of the fence-sitters, looking at the Bull Vs Bear fight, take a big hit. They start selling their stakes in “panic” – “energizing” the Bear even more. These small/medium investors don’t realize that the win for bear was brought about by those ugly FIIs – who suddenly decided that the market was at appropriate level for them to book profits and start selling in big chunk! In turn sucking out valuable funds from the Investment market’s kitty. The fence sitters, with very little investment in the market (in comparison to Institutional Investors), rightfully feel cheated and robbed. But can they do anything? Nah. Do they have any control over the strategic plans of these FIIs? Nah, again. You see FIIs are not our “Papas” to think of our well being before theirs! They have their own interests and with them being global entities – they move their money around the world market to get the maximum profits (for their own declared/undeclared clientele). So they bring in money in a market and move out when “they” feel they can take out the maximum “juice” out of the current market. Knowing all this – knowing that market movement is controlled by these few mongers, we still get scared by outward movement of funds.

And what role do experts play in defining investment patters for small/medium investors? In my view – they are largely dubious, uninformed and don’t know their business well enough. Mind you – I may jot down these financial jargons – I don’t however claim to be an expert by any stretch of imagination. No Sir. I would rather call myself “foolish” than “eat my own shoes later”, like all those financial experts around. Boy – have you heard these experts? They are like TV commentators of a game of cricket who will very intelligently inform everyone viewing the match that the batsman missed the ball and the ball went to the wicketkeeper. The whole world can see the same on Television screen. Doesn’t require an expert to tell us that – does it? We want to know an “intelligent” review of the happenings and perhaps a forecast of what could happen – IF and only if they themselves know about it. We assume that these experts have enough experience, inside knowledge and/or analytical skills to honestly inform their audiences about profitability or dangers that lie ahead. But no Sir – 99% of these experts are like those cricket commentators. So when the Bears take charge of the market – these extremely knowledgeable Experts go on and on about how the sentiments of the markets have taken a beating and how the market is in a gloomy phase, they (justifying their status as master of the trade) go on to inform everyone that the gloom is going to stay for a few days… ah weeks… or it would follow the same bearish trend for the coming two quarters. Our sentiments (that had taken a beating anyways by the falling share prices during the trading hours) skips’ another beat just by such Oh! Such informed prediction by the “great expert”.

It’s just that the next day market opens up stronger – with consistent Bull rally and closes 100 odd points over the last day. But Lo Behold – our experts have answers to that too. You see they are the experts – they know everything. So they very innocently tell us …that the markets on that day followed the “positive cues” from the overnight US market. The sentiments (that phrase again!) of the domestic investors were vastly improved by the encouraging signs of the European and US markets and the same resulted in a lot of buying in the market. The FIIs led the charge (as always) and that has also resulted in a stronger rupee… You then want to know what led to the Western Markets rising overnight – and you are told by these experts that …the markets around the world have realized that the “basic fundamentals” are sound around the world and that they can bring in their stocked money into the market for meaningful investments… Ah! Now – now it all makes sense. So finally we can see some stabilization in the market. The market (true to the Expert’s views) opens the next day with upward movement and closes again on a high. Our experts go on a rampage very soon …Oh, the market is stabilizing now – not to worry. Apart from small hiccups some days – the market will remain bullish and will hover around the “psychological mark” of 9000+ (SENSEX) and 2500+ (NSE). There are strong positive cues coming out of US market – which is primarily due to “Stimulus” package (the most used word today in the world) announced by the President. The market has taken this up very well and there is a feeling now that the businesses will reorganize themselves and investors can hence look to good days in the coming months... These experts though very conveniently forget that just a couple of days back these same “visionaries” had predicted a gloomy market for the coming quarters. And to prove them wrong all over again and true to the unpredictable nature of the market – the Sensex/NSE crashes to an all time low the very next day and remains there for days to come. But our experts don’t feel ashamed – they have many a cards up their sleeves you see. As usual, a few more tons of ink and loads of airtime are wasted by these experts to explain the new trend in print media (as well as On-Air). So much for expert value. Huh.

You see, the whole point I am trying to make is that no one – and I repeat – NO ONE knows what is happening and what is going to happen today or tomorrow in these times. Taking a parallel, it was easier to predict Roger Federer’s Grand Slam victories in the times that he was invincible. This was till someone named Rafael Nadal came along. Ask any expert today regarding who will win a particular Grand slam? You will find most of them stammer. After a year or two perhaps everyone will be confident enough to say that Nadal will win. But, they can’t afford to say that today. Why? Because there are lots of ifs and buts involved. Variables like, determination of the players, the confidence of the players, the luck of the players etc. These are the things that no expert sitting in an A/c room can judge or define and hence they falter in their analysis and predictions. Investment Markets have unparalleled number of variables which no single person (world over) has potential to understand. Thanks to coupling of the domestic economy/market with the other parts of the world and thanks to information traversing around in increasingly faster pace – the markets do not necessarily react to domestic moods and events. So irrespective of whether “Infosys” declares Quarterly results with good profit margins or whether RBI announces cuts on CRR/Repo/Reverse-Repo rates – the markets do not necessarily react favorably the next day. A typical example is of the reaction of local markets to the two “Stimulus” packages that the Government of India (GOI) announced in the last 3/4 months. The markets opened weak the very next day. Why? The thousands of crores of Rupees announced as part of relief and stimuli did not play any significant role in how the markets reacted. They anyways fell because there was some major company that went bankrupt in US or some big bank that required bailing out in Europe. Hence, all the positive steps the GOI, or any other Nation’s Government for that matter, takes, does not infuse enthusiasm in the market. As if the bundles of millions and millions of Rupees go down the deep-dark drain. (Just to give a dose of experts’ analysis on markets position after Stimulus packages were announced – they said …Market had already discounted the positive cues generated by the possible announcement of relief package by the GOI a few days back and hence there was no enthusiasm in the market when it was announced yesterday evening. It is hence that the Markets opened weak today. And so it goes… Wah re Experts.)

I can see two parts to the whole Share market story. One is the “Sentimental” part and the other is the “Real” one. It is like the eternal fight between the Heart and the Mind. And I have a feeling that the Sentimental part is being dominant in the last 2-6 Quarters and is winning over the logical arguments. And that is what prompts me to say that the world as a whole has failed itself by being sentimental about this matter. The ground realities have been neglected in their analysis of the situation and resultant corrective steps that they have taken. So (?) a few big shots had to close down their companies and a few had to be bailed out. Does it stop anyone from making a new beginning, as earlier? After all billions and trillions of dollars have been infused in the market by various countries – where are these funds going? Are those few profit-making mongers (those big investment houses/funds) gulping away the money before it reaches the logical destination? It is important that you think about it. USA alone has infused so much of liquidity in their domestic market, India has done the same, UK has taken similar steps and so have almost every other country. So where is all the fund vanishing? We continue to see companies closing down, people losing jobs, Markets lying low and demands continue to be at their lower levels. Why? There has been bumper crop this year in India alone, there is excess food lying in stores, there is no shortage of food and vegetables in the market, there is no spurt in Oil prices, the base interest rates are pretty decent, there is huge investment made by GOI in infrastructure projects and hence the construction work is still going on, Heavy industries (like steel, cement, coal etc) have no reason to reduce production by huge margins – then why the depressing feeling of slowdown? 60-70% people of our country are either farmers or connected to farming and its subsidiary businesses. None of them have any problems. In fact, in my recent visit to my village – I could see no signs of any recessionary tensions there. They in fact laughed off any talk of slowdown and recession affecting them. For them – it does not matter if the Dollar value reduces, it does not matter if Auto Industry, Airlines, IT industry, Investment Market is slowing down. For them, this year has been good with ample rains and bumper crop – enough for them to keep them happy. And that is the feeling across all the surrounding areas that I made social visits to. I am sure the same is the case with most of the other Villages – i.e. the major majority of people in India. So why is there a feeling of panic in the remaining 30% of the population? If you really see, there is no panic even in the whole of 30% of the remaining population. Majority of them are Public Servants, Central/State Government employees, Defense Personnel etc. These people do not have to fear for their jobs just yet (perhaps never). So it is only 5-10% (at the max) of the people who are worried with this downtrend in the global financial markets. Is it then fair to paste a gloomy picture of the state of entire country as a whole? Not by any means.

For me – the land/house and all fixed assets are still there. For me – the nations are still printing the same amount of currency (if not a bit more), for me the gold still glitters the same way as earlier (and has not reduced in quantity in Government coffers) and for me – I do the same amount of hard work I did earlier (if not more). On top of that there is so much infusion of liquidity in the market. But the situation still seems bleak or at least is painted in dark colors. Why? We need to think hard on these factors all over again. The problem is not with the liquidity. The supply is still there. The Demand has reduced for sure though. It is time we all prepped up the demand then. Markets I am sure will fall in place. But who will want to increase the demand and spend precious funds that we all hold for emergency. Not with all the experts predicting doom for many months to come and definitely not with our jobs at stake. But then someone has to start. Question is who will?

Also, the problem is not that the private companies have suddenly stopped being productive. The problem is with the fraudulent accounting practices that the companies have followed till late and continuing to follow even now. Problem is with asset valuation done, not on the base rates, but on the current market rates. Problem is with profit projections based on these inflated valuations of fixed/movable/immovable assets of the organization and in turn building up their credit worthiness in the eyes of the lenders. Problem is with spreading the losses incurred in a particular year over next few years – painting an entirely wrong picture of the state of a given company. Problem is also with the Financial Rating agencies not having sound methods of evaluating and rating companies/investment opportunities. These and connected issues are the basic problems for me. And the current crisis is due to this more than anything else. Suddenly due to fall in underlying assets – the account books of the organizations have gone in red. The liabilities that were built up on the inflated Asset figures were for real and as soon as the inflated assets fell in their valuation – the whole damn balance sheet went into negative. The companies hence began to default on repaying their liabilities. The lenders naturally had to close in to get their dues. This eventually resulted in many companies declaring bankruptcy. Some of these companies are now being bailed out – but for others there is no respite. Frankly, they are themselves to be blamed. The high flying financial experts and their workforce (of such companies) should be quarantined and trained all over again on honest/true accounting practices really. That is the only solution (along with some financial help from governments), before a fresh start can be made.

Anyways, getting back to the topic on hand – I would suggest that for everyone who is predicting the down trend to continue for the whole of this year – use your middle finger as they do not seem to have any idea of what is going on and it is for this that we should not give them much importance. I would want you too to use the same contempt as you would use to anyone misleading you in life. I shall take two examples to demonstrate why these are the biggest idiots (for want to better word) you will ever come across.

Take the first one: The Rise and fall of Crude Oil prices is one major example of how everyone is clueless about what happens in the market. Remember the time till the last two quarters of 2007 when Crude oil prices were in their comfortable range of 55-65$ per Barrel? Remember also how this soon started changing when the crude oil prices started rising slowly to 74.12…79.91…91.69 by December 2007. Our so-called experts were having a field day explaining the trend. Predictions were made that the oil prices will continue to rise till $125 once it rallies beyond the “psychological” barrier of 100$. This is after it had continuously breached the previous “barrier” of $60 a few times already that year. The jubilation, of such “on-the-pulse” type of experts, knew no bounds when the crude oil prices went on a rampage soon after and crossed all logical propositions to go beyond $100 in Jan 2008 itself and continued to rise. It crossed $120 in May 2008 and eventually reached $147.30 in July 2008. Every expert worth his salt was predicting the rise of oil to go far beyond $150 per barrel soon and then perhaps going on to touch $200 in the coming Quarters. In fact, I was reading an article by a South Asian expert in “The Economic Times” paper – and he with all his years of experience in the Market as an expert on Crude Oil pricing and movements – summarized that the prices of oil will indeed continue to rise and for people expecting it to fall below $100 and perhaps reaching the levels of $50-$60 was preposterous in imagination and far removed from reality. He asked such people to come out of their dreams and get real. According to him the reasonable “settling down” price of oil would hover around $110-$120 in the long run. And such explanations were repeated in all the analytical programs and articles that I read in those times. For people who listen to the News programs of any kind – will recollect that a host of reasons were also given for the continuous rise of prices. Reasons like, Decrease in Oil Reserves in US, Middle-east conflict, Geo-political events like natural disasters in that period, North Korean Missile tests, Worries over Iranian Nuclear program and supposed attack by US on Iran etc. Some analysts also claimed that there has been sudden spurt of demand from China and India (with its huge population), some blamed it on Katrina (The “Hurricane” in US) and a few of them blamed financial speculation (with host of fancy names attached to this). The fact is that when the prices were increasing, the demand in US for Oil reduced in January 2008 period. The prices did not fall thereafter. Did it? Neither is there any proof to suggest that India/China had increased demand of oil suddenly in 2007/2008. Other reasons like conflicts, worries about Nuclear Bombs etc are reasons that may affect the prices for a brief period – not over many months. That then leaves the probable reason of Financial Market speculation. It would have been interesting to see whether the reasons for increase in oil prices were due to “Oil Futures” (Note: Future contracts are purchase of contracts/commodity – by high end investors – at a set price for future delivery on a set date. This is either settled in cash on the set date or sold to genuine customers. There is no purchase of actual item/commodity – in this case Oil). We shall not get into how the Oil Futures drove this market – as is most likely the case. But the fact remains that without change in fundamental demand in the world market – the prices of oil started sprinting northwards – breaking all records. And true to form – our experts were having fun! The only problem for them was that the Crude oil prices started falling – in fact they crashed while experts were still jumping on the “northward” wagon. It fell to below $130 by Aug 2008 and further down to below $100 by Sep 2008, below $60 by Oct 2008 and hovered around $30-$40 by end of Dec 2008. Hoof! All the inflated egos should have taken a hiding – or so we hoped! But no sir – not a chance! The Experts were soon back and again explaining “why” the prices fell suddenly to such levels. Forgotten was all the prediction and explanations they had put forth for the prices to go beyond $150! And no – the demand did not reduce too much from any of the major countries in July 2008 and neither did Supply increase substantially (as was being worked out by USA with Saudi Arabia). If I were to put my neck out and point a reason for the whole “drama” that cost many headaches to oil importing nations – it would be financial speculation led by those few greedy thugs who have lot of black money with them to float around and bet on such untested instruments (as Future contracts) for bigger gains. Point here being – none of the damn experts could either analyze or predict the sudden rise of the oil prices – neither could they estimate the fall of the same. In summary – they were (and they continue to be) useless in their value.

Now look at the second example. The rise and fall of Share market – especially the BSE Sensex (Bombay Stock Exchange SENSitive IndEX). When the market started rising in late 2005 from 6000 points to crossing 10000 (another “psychological barrier”) in Jan/Feb 2006 everybody started saying well – the market is bullish and it may settle down at around 13K points in the coming years. Hmmm… Sensex crossed 13000 mark by Nov 2006 and 15K by the June 2008. That’s it – enough of “caution to the wind” attitude. The Experts went berserk and started predicting 20K+ targets in the coming years. Long forgotten were 13K figures of stabilization according to their analysis earlier. Of course! They were feeding the bull and kicking it to perform higher. The bear was badly bruised and beaten and was recuperating. True to form (in fact beyond anyone’s wildest dreams) the Sensex moved from 17559 to 19243 within a week in Oct 2007. Experts had reasons ready for such a phenomenal jump. They were all in golden haze. They went one step further and prophesized – if the Sensex crosses 20K mark – well, sky is the limit and 25K will be reached pretty quickly. After all there are FIIs waiting with a lot of money on the fence and are only waiting for some profit booking (selling of shares in the Market) to happen. Once they infuse those funds – 25K is the point to reach! The Sensex touched 20000 points (20827 to be exact) by end of Dec 2007! Wow! India – The growth story of the decade! Everyone is so very impressed with the growth opportunities existing in the country. My…My…Who wouldn’t want to invest here? We are a stable economy and with a lot of promise. Thank you very much. The oil prices had by then started playing their own games… and moving northwards. The Institutional investors found the oil market to be much more lucrative and profitable and quickly started to move money there. And for that they started selling in markets like India. Our experts did not know what hit them. The Bear was back and back with vengeance! The Sensex very promptly started losing air. By April 2008 – Sensex had been beaten to 15000 levels and fell from 14K in Sep 2008 to 8701 points by the end of Oct 2008. Month of October was never so bad in India for domestic investors. With it being the month of festivals around the country – the Share Markets (being Oh so sensitive) historically perform well in the month of October and November. Not this time though. The FIIs are not necessarily Indians and they for sure do not care about Festivals in India. Hah. The Market has been hovering in-between 7500 to 9500 in the last 4 months now, with the Bull getting up sometimes – to be beaten back again and again by the re-energized Bear. Needless to say the rising Oil and essential commodity prices led to these profit-making FIIs to move to Oil and Commodity market. Since it is the same money that has to be moved around, they have to take money away from established money markets. The high Oil prices led to recession kicking-in in US and eventually to most of the countries around the globe. This recession led to falling demand and eventually brought down the Oil prices. The FIIs for once took big beating. The funds that they had, suddenly started dwindling. The hunters as they say – became the hunted. They started selling their investments to retrieve cash. And today, I believe, they are biding their time (with most of their money still in place and in their closet). They will come out blazing again soon. But the point is, our experts in all this rise and fall of Sensex did not have the foresight to predict that the inflated “markers” were not to be treated as bench marks and that though the India-story is definitely strong and growing – there is no reason to believe that the rise of the share market is in line with the growth trajectory of the country. That is what I expect out of experts. If they are to follow the wind and float around with the wind – then they are as good/bad as us. Then they are not the experts as we wish them to be. Are they? That, the FIIs were bound to leave someday was there for everyone to see. Foreign Investment (as through FII route) is not the same as FDI (Foreign Direct Investment). FDI invests money in projects around the country. They take partial/full ownership of the companies that they invest in. They are responsible for the performance of the companies they put their money in. Such investments are generally for long term purposes and are based on the performance of the country and growth of the country. FIIs, for that matter, are not bound by any commitment. They can bring in the money and run away when and if they please. The bubble was there for everyone to see – but few had the guts to spill it out. In turn – innocent, small investors lost their life time earnings when the bubble burst, leading to a lot of hardships.

You see – the point I am trying to make here is – listen to as many experts you wish to. I would however be happy if you would use your own brains/judgment in so far as your own investments are concerned. If you do not understand the investment – kindly invest your money in Debt funds like FD, Term Deposits, PPF, etc. Where, you will at least be guaranteed a constant return (though perhaps on a lower level than the Money/Share Market). Never… Never trust the experts and their views. They (major majority of them I must say) are absolutely clueless. In fact, most of the Governments are also clueless, including (and sadly) our own. Take the example of the rise and fall of inflation. From a comfortable 5+% range – it suddenly rose to 12-13% in a matter of few weeks in early 2008. The increase was primarily due to increasing cost of Oil products (due to increase in imported Crude oil prices) and hoarding of commodity by wholesale merchants. You will recollect that even though Diesel and Petrol prices were not raised (till the very end) the prices of commodities and essentials increased. Why? You can thank those private hoarders. And as usual with GOI (I mean their habit of curing the Knee when the Toe was injured) stepped in through RBI and increased CRR/Repo/Reverse Report rates. This was to curb the Demand by sucking away liquidity from market. The problem however was definitely not in demand, if you really look deeper. And even if it were, I am not inclined to believe that the Demand-supply mismatch was due to higher demand by the millions of citizens of the country. So why squeeze liquidity out of market by increasing lending rates? Was there any improvement in the market when RBI took the above steps? Oh yes, the few wealthy ones stopped buying land/property etc. But did it bring down the commodity prices? Nah. Not for many months. Neither was there any significant improvement in the Inflation rates even months after these measures. But today the inflation is at 4-5% and predicted to slide to 3%. Now they are cutting back all the rates all over again. They may pat their backs for bringing the Inflation down. But who are they trying to fool? If not for recession the world over and if not for the prices of oil going down from $148 to $30 – we would have seen the truth. And no – recession and Southward movement of Oil did not happen because of RBI’s “bold steps” taken to curb inflation. They were supposed to be seen to be doing something, and they just did “something”. Look at today’s scenario – the RBI has cut their base rates and so have some Banks. This should ideally flood the market with liquidity and increase demand – isn’t it? That should then ideally lead to Demand Supply mismatch (i.e. Supply will not be able to match up to Demand) – increasing inflation in the coming quarter? Agreed? So why did RBI project a lower inflation of 3% in future? There are no easy answers. But again – they have to be seen to be doing something as I said. And here they are. Their end goals don’t have any synergy to their means adopted. And for me – that is a proof of people in authority being clueless. And true to their illogical “logics” they project GDP to be around 8.75, then 8.5/8.25, then 7.5/7.6 and these days they are talking about 7% GDP growth (Our Commerce Minister still talks about 7.5+% GDP even now). Sign of people who know their trade? You decide. And all these downgrading has been happening within the last 2 quarters. I am not sure – but shouldn’t these policy makers have some view of future and then come up with a firm prediction? Or is it not based on any logic at all – as I have begun to feel?

Again, today every expert is predicting a prolonged recessionary period in the entire world. I am not so sure though. As with inflated projections while the going is good – I have a feeling that the world of experts has been understating the actual situation. I strongly feel that the problem is perhaps lack of hope and faith in the existing processes/practices and systems, that perhaps is holding back a definite upsurge in the market. And given that, I have a strong hunch that Obama’s coming would do the trick really. He may not have a magic wand – but he already has brought in a lot of hope in the world. And if he were to come up with some concrete steps – it could be in form of Stimulus package of some kind or such policies that would increase demand – the market in US will start rising again and the other parts of the world would follow suit. See, the problem started with crashing of US realty market. The solution will also come from there. With information flowing fast in this era – any positive cues from USA will percolate faster to other regions and that would lead to increase in confidence of investors sitting over funds. All this can happen pretty fast. Nothing in the last 2-3 years suggest that historical trends of earlier times would be followed and hence am confident that the recession or so called recession would be busted as soon as there is a perceived positive trigger that everyone embraces. And the path to growth story would be much faster this time around, in comparison to earlier times where it took many months for a recession to move into stability and growth.

I think we are looking at the end of this quarter for the turnaround (+/- 20% timelines). The only fear is that these godforsaken experts will continue to paste a gloomy picture and unnecessarily delay the turnaround. If they were to shut up or at least talk of hope with every positive step taken by Governments around the world – the problem would be resolved in half the time. As I said, the land, the houses, the money, the people, the entrepreneurs, the major banks, the major countries, the trading route, the processes, the IT companies etc are all there and are almost stable, even now. It only needs the infusion of hope and positive sentiments for them to start picking threads. Business will start trickling in all over again – and so will revenue.

On a personal note – I “hope” I am proved right this time around. Have I put my foot in my mouth again, by putting my finger on a timeframe? Well – time shall tell! You see – I believe in what Thomas Edison said – “I will not say I failed 1000 times, I will say I discovered 1000 ways that can cause failure”

Mantosh Singh..

23^rd Jan 2009’ – 5^th Feb 2009’

Saurav Ganguly – A True Hero

Rarely do we see an Indian fall and rise time and again and then to finally fall to roar back up with vengeance. He, a man who inspires loads of self-confidence amongst others; a man who faced adversity with fiery fury and converted them into inspiration; a man to whom “impossible” was just another term in the dictionary. This man of destiny is, Saurav Chandidas Ganguly. A man who we have all loved and hated at various times, but a man who has scripted innumerable number of inspirational stories on his way to success.

Around 20,000 runs in more than a decade of non-stop international cricket, 5 years as Indian team captain, the only captain to lead Indian team to World cup Finals in the last 2+ decades, The originator of the famous “team huddle” in the middle of the cricket ground, the only player in India after Sunil Gavaskar who declared his retirement plan well in advance. It is difficult to start describing this man – the Hero of millions. Yes Sir - for all his achievements – this man is my Hero too. Forget his flaws – as all great men have their share of those. If ever this country had a hero – This gentleman sits amongst the top ones.

Saurav, which means “one in a hundred” (in his mother tongue, Bengali), has given us great joy in his long career of 113 test Matches and more than 300 One day internationals, spread over 11+ years (in international arena). I still remember the afternoon when Ganguly walked in to bat in his Debut test at Lord’s Cricket ground. With English bowlers having an early breakthrough – Ganguly was always under pressure. And with highly successful Vinod Kambli (a regular player in test matches in those times) being injured, one always thought Saurav was a stop-gap replacement and with his “attitude” problems reported way back in 1991 tour of Australia – this guy would not play another test Match after this. His failure was a long drawn conclusion. He was taken-in only to complete the playing eleven in that match. Oh - how wrong everyone was?! The world that day, dear friends, watched in awe as this new kid hammered boundary after boundary, announcing his arrival on the international scene like an Emperor. He caressed one boundary after another on the off-side, through the covers and along the ground – piercing field placements at will. Before long – he had completed a remarkable century - on Debut. Rahul Dravid, who was also making his debut in that match (and scored a well made 92 runs in the same innings) was his partner for most of that innings and as Rahul aptly put it later – there is either God or Saurav Ganguly on the off-side of the cricket ground. Ganguly, meanwhile, continued to “hammer” his critics and went on to score another century in the first innings of the next match to became only the 3^rd batsman in the world to score centuries in the first 2 innings of a career. It was a dream start for a player. And to achieve all this after he was “dropped” unceremoniously earlier (without playing in a single Test match in the 1991-92 tour, of India to Australia) on the pretext of having “attitude problems”! Beats sense. In-spite of this initial rebuke from selectors and despite his failure in his debut One-Day International against West Indies in 1992 (where he scored only 3 runs) – he fought back. And how?! Just as any great fighter would – by grabbing the next given opportunity to play. After four years of wilderness and hard work – it took guts to come back and score two consecutive centuries. What a wonderful-wonderful player!

He holds many records in the cricketing arena, like being the first Indian to have scored an ODI century in Australia against Australia, he along with Sachin Tendulkar holds the record of highest amount of runs scored as opening pair, has most number of centuries in ODI (22) after Tendulkar (amongst Indians) and 4^th highest in the world (Tendulkar is followed by Ricky Ponting and Sanath Jayasurya), he is the only Indian captain to have led the Indian team for 5+ continuous years with consistent overseas wins in England, Pakistan, West Indies, Australia, New Zealand, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, he is the man who led the Indian team that broke the famous winning streak of “murderous” Australians in 2001 (helped by famous innings of VVS Laxman in Kolkata). Those are the ones I distinctly remember – there are many more records that a player becomes a part of (by playing international cricket for a decade or more), which I am sure you will find in innumerable number of websites and news dailies. I will not bother you with every single statistics here.

Look at his career though and you will see that we were blessed to have got a player like him. It goes without saying that Indian Cricket would have been poorer without a Sachin, Dravid or a Kumble. But Indian Cricket would, today, be struggling without the inspirational leadership of this one man – we all know as Maharaja, the Tiger or lovable Dada. It was when everything seemed lost after Australian series of 1999, when Australia beat us fair and square (in Australia, under the captaincy of Sachin) – that this man was chosen to lead the team (on this day, the 10^th of November, of 2000). Those were horrible times with Match-Fixing allegations flying thick and high and Indian Cricket definitely at its lowest ebb. How ironical that Saurav will say good-bye to International cricket on the same date – i.e. 10^th Nov 2008. Destiny? Perhaps. Anyways, after becoming Captain, he tasted first blood in form of Test series win over South Africa in 2000 and then against Australia (in India), in 2001. He never looked back from then on. He went on to consistently lead India to test match wins, both overseas and at home. He picked his bunch of players – all of whom were young and hungry – and built a “dream team”. Let me jot down a few incidents that I think truly define the leadership onus that he took upon himself. He was the one who convinced Virendra Sehwag to open in Test Matches – the benefits of which we are reaping till today. He was the one who sacrificed his opening combination with Sachin to give Sehwag the mantle of opening the innings in One-Day Internationals. This, even though he had a successful, world record partnership going with the “Legend”, Sachin Tendulkar. He was the one who (in 2003 Indian tour of Australia) walked in at number 4 position, in the evening of the “First day of the First test match” in Brisbane to shield Sachin Tendulkar from facing the wrath of McGrath and Gillespie. Which captain of a team would even dare to do that in the first test match of the series on the first day? He knew all too well that his “perceived” weakness against genuine fast bowling was something the opposition will exploit and if he were to get out cheaply and that too to a bouncer delivery – his critics would jump and say “we told you so”. He would end up looking foolish then to have even thought of guarding someone as great as Sachin Tendulkar. But again – in a crushing answer to his critics – he went on to score a century in that innings! That is how Ganguly was and that is what sets him apart from any of the Indian Captains till then and ever since. A Leader, who was not afraid to face challenges and who, if required, was ready to catch the bull by the horns even under fire! I can see streak of such traits in our current Captain Mahendra Singh Dhoni – who by the looks of it is on the way to lead Team India in many matches to come.

Alright, remember the World cup of 2003? India had lost their group match against Australia by a whopping 9 wickets (after being dismissed cheaply for 120-130 odd runs)? The whole country was vying for the bloods of the Indian team and more so of Saurav Ganguly – the Captain. I still remember the worried faces of the Indian team shown in media after the loss to Australia in their second pool match. Saurav, as captain, could have easily avoided facing the media and let the other members of the team face the wrath and fury of the nation through the media. But that is not how Saurav lead his team. He took the responsibility of talking to the media and respond to every single punch from them with his chin held high. As a captain – he kept his wards away from those blood sucking wolves on the prowl and kept the team united and motivated. Now that, Sir, is the sign of a wonderful and a great leader. Another decision to prove his support for his chosen team came in form of persisting with Mohammad Kaif in the playing eleven. Mohammad Kaif’s house was ransacked back home in India (by agitated fans of the game) and he was being made the scapegoat for what should have been seen as a collective failure of the entire team. Ganguly as a Captain – stood by Kaif and made him play in all the matches of the World cup from then on. Kaif proved his mettle and had consistent match winning scores from then on – to lead India to historic World Cup Finals. That we lost in that World Cup Finals should not have caused too much of botheration, as Australia were far superior in those times and for us to have won the finals, we needed “The lady luck” as the 11^th player, playing that day in the Indian team. That was not to be. But the whole World Cup series brought forward another aspect of Ganguly’s leadership skills – his care and protection of his wards. A basic lesson taught to all the leaders in Management courses. To be a great leader - you have to have the courage to shield your army from any attack, both from within and outside. And Ganguly proved just that in the 2003 World cup series.

All the above are incidents that may seem insignificant and perhaps may not have been noticed by general masses – but these were for me the golden steps taken by a great leader. For me that group of players, from different regions of our vast country, became “Team India” during that series. The entire team seemed united under the able leadership of Saurav Ganguly.

Life, however, had another struggle scripted in the tale of this player though. He was “beaten”, humiliated and thrown out of the team after test series victory in Zimbabwe (against the host nation in 2005). It came as a body blow – not only to Ganguly as a player and a Captain – but also to all his admirers like us. And to know that it was a conspiracy hatched outside the playing ground – was deeply annoying and extremely frustrating. But then, not for anything is this man revered by his fans – he kept quiet and with the energy and vigor that only great men posses, he worked hard. He worked extremely hard – willing/waiting for that one chance to get back into the team where he belonged as a right. After India were beaten “with a cane” to lose 4-0 against South Africa in ODI series (in South Africa) – there was a call for bringing back Saurav Ganguly. He got the chance, in form of Test Match slot, “against” the wishes of scoundrels like Greg Chappell, Dravid, the previous Cricket Selection Committee (With that “Lilliput”, Kiran More at the helm) and ex-cricketers like Ravi Shastri etc. And did he prove to be the savior for the team? Yes Sir – he did. He was the highest scorer in the first test match against South Africa. He led India to a test match victory – the first by an Indian team in South Africa. A dream comeback was once again being written for this warrior. He scored at will in that series and was the highest Indian scorer there. He then went on to make 3 centuries in 2007 (including a double century against Pakistan). Even his farewell series (against Australia) has turned out to be a dream with one century and 2 half centuries. Is this the man we were after to quit the game? We certainly treat fighters and heroes “very well” down here in our country. Huh.

A man who scores at a rate of more than 50 Runs per innings/match in both forms of the game (Test Match and ODI, in 2007) and who has overall scored more than 12000 runs in One-Day Internationals, is dropped from ODI team under the pretext of bad fielding standards and non-performance! Well as the song goes, “It happens only in India”. Come to think of it – I can’t remember a single catch that Ganguly has dropped in the last 2 years – a memory that is still fresh. I can’t remember too many incidents of him misfielding in any match over the last 2 years. The ones that he has have been genuine mistakes that almost all the fielders make sometimes. Haven’t we seen Robin Uthappa, Sehwag, Rohit Sharma etc misfield? Look for evidence in Australian and Sri-Lankan ODI Series i.e. if you have had a temporary amnesia attack for some reason. In fact, Saurav has taken 100 catches in his ODI career. For someone who was not a regular in “slip-cordon”, he has done remarkably well, i.e. as a fielder, to hold on to those many catches. Is this the sign of a “bad” fielder? For devils’ sake – look at the other side. He is only the 3^rd ODI player in the history of the game to have scored more than 10000 runs, taken more than 100 wickets and has more than 100 catches to his name (Sahcin and Jayasurya being the other two). Not even Ricky Ponting – who is definitely a better fielder than Ganguly and who has played equal or more number of matches as Ganguly has – has managed to take more. And to top it, Ganguly has scored many half-centuries and centuries, at an excellent strike rate since his return to ODI team in 2007! What else do you want a player to do? Not everyone can be a rabbit on field. Is Sehwag a great fielder? Is Yuvraj Singh anywhere as close to a good fielder that he once was? What is the use of having 10 good fielders – but not one of them scoring runs when required? Take a look at all the ODIs played by the Indian team in the last 1 year and you will find that we have won matches because of the “Bowlers” most of the times. Our batsmen have been found wanting in almost all the matches (except for some brilliant knocks by Sachin in VB series finals against Australia). If not for Dhoni’s knocks in most of the ODI matches, in the last one year, we would have struggled to post decent scores. So why drop a decent batsman from your team? Young legs? My foot. Let those intelligent selectors take a long walk to hell – for all I care. We shall see how many of these young “greats” like Yuvraj, Raina, Dhoni decide to retire in time – i.e. before they grow “old”. To say that seniors should make way for youngsters is just a bloody “catch line” I say. Let the damn “juniors” of today first become consistent enough to become “seniors” in future, and THEN we shall see how many of them are “great” enough to decide on their retirement. It is easier to tell others. We shall see how these “Youngistan Turks” feel about retirement when they reach 33-34 years of age. Oh boy – I can’t wait for that period to come. I am sure I will live long enough to see their reactions then.

See – Sachin, Ganguly, Dravid, Kumble and Laxman are “GREAT” players – great men. They have a certain way of thinking and we mortals just cannot even “begin” to imagine how their mind works. That is why they are “great”, whereas we aren’t. We have no business to compare them to ourselves and expect them to follow all principles (flawed or otherwise) that we believe in. They have achieved greatness by applying their body and soul to the purposes of serving their nation in their own capacity. And anyone who has served the game for over a decade (as these men have) should be well respected and honored. That we, like wolves, hang our tongues out to drink their blood (in their time of despair) does not show us in good light.

Players like Sachin Tendulkar are perhaps born once in a generation. But it will not be wrong to say that players like Saurav Ganguly are born once in many-many decades and leaders like him are even rarer to find. For the joy that this shirt whirling, outspoken, left-arm batsman (and leader) has given to every citizen of this country – I say we salute him. Give him every ounce of accolade and tribute that he truly deserves.

I may not follow the game of cricket as much as I have followed in my life after he leaves. There won’t be too many great players of my time left for me to watch. There definitely won’t be Saurav Ganguly to look for, playing those exquisite cover drives on the field! For such extreme emotions for the game – I thank you Sir. I shall eventually pass on the “baton” of “cheering with maddening emotions” to the next generation. We have to be consistent with Cricket Selectors after all i.e. to keep the game “youthful” overall. This game perhaps will be well served by new set of patrons who have fresh voice (to shout), fresh legs (to jump around in joy), fresh nails (to chew upon), fresh eyes (to keep them glued to the TV screens) and fresh expletives (in times when the team does not perform well!) to take the new crop of cricketers forward! I hope the game prospers in this country and keeps our man’s legacy intact.

As my kids grow up – I definitely won’t be looking up the Indian history books for inspirational super-hero stories to tell them. I just need to close my eyes and play back the saga of Saurav’s cricketing career and I know my kids would have learnt a lot by the time I finish his epic chronicle. I could not have found a better story to tell them. And for that – I thank you again Saurav.

Thanks a lot for all the good memories you have given us and wish you all the best.

Its Montoo..

(6^th Nov 2008-10^th Nov 2008)

Tryst with Destiny – A Perspective

So we are in the 61^st year of our independence. We have grown old – haven’t we? The “tryst with destiny” has come a long way. We have had many “strokes at midnight” ever since the 15^th Aug 1947. We need to slow down a bit – isn’t it? Na… In fact, Old age comes with an advantage. It breeds the path of progress with tons of experience to breed upon. I say, we indeed have achieved a lot together and we as hell have to achieve a lot more.

As we hit another year in our glorious path – let us look back and renew the pledge that our ancestors and freedom fighters took. Let me reiterate a point here – I have always felt that it is not always prudent to “look at the past” and live in the sense of satisfaction, happiness or sorrow. We at best should look at the past – to work on the shortcomings and to fill the “gap” that was left in past actions and perhaps also to look at all the glorious things/events of the past and feel honored to have been a part of it.

However, a look back at the history of India makes me wonder – why do we always talk about 60^th or 61^st year of independence? We were always an “independent” nation to start with. That Bharat/Hindustan was independent before Mughals came along is something we conveniently forget. King Ram in “Treta Yug” and naughty Krishna in “Dwapur Yug” were all born in the land of “Bharat” which was independent in its own sense. At the least – they were not governed by any known outside forces/civilization. It was only in 1328 AD that Mughal rule finally started in India. It is part of our history – there is nothing new I am claiming here. What is perhaps not appreciated by most of us is that it took multiple attacks by Arabs/Mughals since 715 AD (starting with Mohammad bin Qasim’s attack in 715 AD to Allah-ud-din-Khilji’s attack in 1310 and which lasted till 1328AD) to capture most of India - which means it took almost 600 years for any known foreign power to take India over. 600 years!! Many of us would die 10 times over before we even claim to have lived 600 years on earth. That is a long-long time. That this Mughal rule came to an end with start of an equally embarrassing British Rule is also a part of our oppressed history. The fact is – the last 500+ years of foreign rule have perhaps made us believe that we were always ruled by someone against our wishes and hence when we got Independence from the British in 1947 – we, for the first time, became independent. We have, almost always, thought of ourselves as oppressed country since we (again) - almost always - read history of our country with a “British prism”. No Sir. We were perfectly fine country before Mughals captured our land and had a healthy (almost) democratic culture in those periods – and with much larger area/land of control (from most of Afghanistan to Rangoon and from most of Kashmir till Kanyakumari).

It is hence that I want you to read the history of our country – in a somewhat detail – to really understand the nature and history of our country. Only when you read the history will you understand that this independence from British is ONLY an event in the growth of our nation. We did not certainly realize how to be independent in 1947. We had rich history even before Mughals and British rule, with rulers of those times born and brought up in our own land and were of our own culture. Being governed by such Kings/emperors was not living in tyranny or subjugation. Every bit of history that we can lay our hands on proves that the rule in those times were fair and inclusive. That is what we call independent sense of living, isn’t it? It is like having a Prime Minister of our own land elected/selected from within the citizens of this country. As for electoral democracy, I don’t think there was any precedent of elected representative in those times anywhere in the world – but which does not does not mean that we were not Independent. A point to ponder here is whether electing our leaders in modern India makes us any more independent than being governed by a popular king in those times? I have always believed that the general masses remain subservient to the leaders – elected, selected or forced on us. That you and I are not deciding if the Nuclear deal needs to be signed or not is a proof of that. That you and I have no say in how to solve the Kashmir problem is another proof of that. Even in another democracy like USA – that Bush should attack Afghanistan/Iraq was not decided by the citizens of that country. All these decisions are taken by leader of the day and the prerogative lies with them to make such a decision. Isn’t this akin to the way a King would take decisions? That is what I mean when I say that the way leaders are made – elected or selected - does not actually make a difference. What matters is – how well the chosen one governs. And as mentioned above – the way Bharat was ruled for centuries before 700AD proves that the men who ruled were more or less good governors.

The point I am trying to make is – let us not look at our history confined to only last 60-80 years. We have had rich culture and effective governance even 1000 years back and what we now have to do is continue from the learnings’ of the past. This day should be seen as “our day” of “getting back” to “our” earlier ways of living with free spirits and sense of belonging to the nation.

Let us also spare a thought for the ones who have laid their lives for the country and also for those who lived through to “restructure” the fabric of this great nation (once the British left). Let us also spare a thought for all the people who have been working continuously for all these years (at various times) to help build this great nation all over again. Let us also bow to every single citizens of this country who have been enduring the pain of this period of churning. Let us pledge that “our generation” will help this nation that we refer by the name of Bharat/ Hindustan and India, to get the revered/rightful place on this planet. We shall not rest in peace till we do that.

I have always believed that this country is not only about a Mahatma Gandhi, Jawahar Nehru, Sardar Patel, Laxmi Bai, Mangal Pandey, Chandrashekar Azad, Bhagat Singh, Mohammad Ali Jinnah or such well known freedom fighters. This nation was not built by such people alone. This was built by many more, who we perhaps do not know of. This indeed is “being” built by you and me even today. And for that - I say Thank You. Thank You - for being such good citizens of this country. And to paraphrase Martin Luther King’s famous words – “Together we shall and together we will return to our glorious days”.

Amen.

Mantosh Singh..

14^th Aug 2008’

Ps: Next page has Jawaharlal Nehru’s full speech on 15^th Aug 1947. Just thought you would want to read it

TRYST WITH DESTINY

“Long years ago we made a tryst with destiny, and now the time comes when we shall redeem our pledge, not wholly or in full measure, but very substantially”

At the stroke of midnight hour, when the world sleeps, India will awake to life and freedom. A moment comes which comes but rarely in history, when we step out from the old to the new, then an age ends, and when the soul of a nation, long suppressed, finds utterance. It is fitting that at this solemn moment we take the pledge of dedication to India and her people and to the still larger cause of humanity.

At the dawn of history India started on her unending quest, and trackless centuries are filled with her striving and the grandeur of her successes and her failures. Through good and ill fortune alike she has never lost sight of that quest or forgotten the ideals which gave her strength. We end today a period of ill fortune and India discovers herself again.

The achievement we celebrate today is but a step, an opening of opportunity, to the greater triumphs and achievements that await us. Are we brave enough and wise enough to grasp this opportunity and accept the challenge of the future?

Freedom and power bring responsibility. That responsibility rests upon this assembly, a sovereign body representing the sovereign people of India. Before the birth of freedom we have endured all the pains of labour and our hearts are heavy with the memory of this sorrow. Some of those pains continue even now.

Nevertheless, the past is over and it is the future that beckons to us now.

That future is not one of ease or resting but of incessant striving so that we might fulfill the pledges we have so often taken and the one we shall take today. The service of India means the service of the millions who suffer. It means the ending of poverty and ignorance and disease and inequality of opportunity. The ambition of the greatest man of our generation has been to wipe every tear from every eye. That may be beyond us but so long as there are tears and suffering, so long our work will not be over.

And so we have to labour and to work, and work hard, to give reality to our dreams. Those dreams are for India, but they are also for the world, for all the nations and peoples are too closely knit together today for any one of them to imagines that it can live apart. Peace has been said to be indivisible, so is freedom, so is prosperity now, and so also is disaster in this one world that can no longer be split into isolated fragments.

To the people of India whose representatives we are, we make appeal to join us with faith and confidence in this great adventure. This is no time for petty and destructive criticism, no time for ill-will or blaming others. We have to build the noble mansion of free India where all her children may dwell."

- Jawaharlal Nehru – 15^th Aug 1947’

India - Waiting for “Hitler”

“If I were asked under what sky the human mind has most fully developed some of its choicest gifts, has most deeply pondered on the greatest problems of life, and has found solutions, I should point to India” – Max Mueller

India, which is today one of the most progressive nation on earth and which promises to get back to the Golden era of prosperity, is also at its most exciting period in time. Last 15 years or so have been a revelation in terms of economic growth. This growth looks even greater when seen in terms of GDP, Foreign Direct Investment coming in and stupendous rise of stock markets not long ago. It will not be wrong to claim that public in general too has benefitted from this. You can today see Mobile phones, Cable Television, more number of pumping sets (for water) in most of the villages. That for me is a sign of development. Not long ago (in fact only some 16 years ago) – we would visit an “STD/ISD/PCO/Xerox” booth near our hostel and wait in queue to make STD calls to our Parents. It would sometimes take more than an hour to get the connection and make a call. That’s no more the case – is it? Just a few years back – we had to stand in long queues to book a railway ticket/reservation. Not anymore. We can do it using online booking facility. Not too long ago buying a car or a house was a dream. These have become much easier to acquire – thanks to some great melt down in Bank’s Interest rates. Press & Media have progressively become independent and today with so many News channels – people are generally in touch with happenings around the world. A big achievement indeed – considering it took us more than a day (again, while we were in hostel in 1991) to find out that USSR has disintegrated to become multiple nations - thanks to “Perestroika”! This was because we did not get newspaper for a day and Doordarshan (no cable TV in those times) would as usual show News bulletins only at specific times (when we would not be watching)! Our ignorance apart – it will be fair to say that the country has progressed at an enormous speed in the last 15 years. It indeed went into an overdrive in the last decade or so hastening the process of growth. It is hence not a surprise that things look much brighter for most of us reading this article – including yours truly.

It is not to say though that everything is honky dory with the country. I don’t think there ever will be a set of people who will be satisfied! What goes unnoticed in all these rosy scenarios is the gap between the rich and poor. That, according to various studies, has only grown wider. The social divide has indeed grown bigger and so has the class divide. There are inter-caste differences that have increasingly – & violently – grown larger. And then there always was and will always be the religious differences. Again, for countries which have seamless power supply, water supply, houses for majority, large areas of land to live, various employment options to chose from, government pension schemes, good age old homes for old people, relatively mature polity etc etc. – there are other important issues to think and worry about. You know – issues like homosexuality, Global warming, Changing Life styles of Prince/Princesses, strictly following a 40 hours a week work schedule (and not more), Pollution, agitating against use of mice and pig for medical experiments etc. For countries like India though homosexuality, global warming are problems of elite and problems that perhaps seem only as real and probable as seeing more than 5% of the Indian Politicians being honest. Look, the fact is – we still struggle with problems aplenty, which are basic in nature. There are power supply problems in almost all the cities, towns and villages of the country. Clean drinking water is a dream for majority of population and basic amenities like living conditions, sanitation, primary and higher education for majority of kids, sensitive bureaucrats (to understand and resolve problems of the people as per stated law) are all but non existent. Then there are issues like increase in violence and violent masses, Increase in terrorist attacks, Increase in corruption to the lowest and the highest levels.

The problems that this country faces in the backdrop of increasing international financial clout have made me think. My major area of concern is the growing number of violent activities perpetrated by increasing volume of violent political masses. These violent masses enjoy deep political patronage and hence seem to be immune to the laws that govern the common man. Sometimes in the name of religion, sometimes in the name of Caste and sometimes in the name of gaining political control – there is some or the other reason for these masses to go on a rampage. With none of them ever being punished – it has become worrisome. It is this that has made me write this column. And perhaps a look back in history is in order, for me to prove why I am worried.

I wish to draw some parallels between the state of our country today and state of another great Nation way back in history. This country was extremely prosperous (in fact it was considered a financial giant), it also was a deeply industrial and agriculture based economy. They were artistically & culturally rich and they all loved their country with a passion not common amongst citizens of other nations. They too had their own class divisions which were huge, they had problems with their form of democracy, and had their share of love and hate relationship with a particular sect of people. And to top it – they too wanted to be the world conquerors (like all we Indians) and wanted the world to acknowledge them as the leaders of the world. I am referring to the great nation of Germany that it once was at the start of 20^th Century.

In fact the similarities between the society/political scene of India today and social & political life of Germans in that era are so uncanny that it does seem an exact replica. We will take a peek on the German nation of those times now and perhaps by the time you finish this article you will know what I mean. Need your patience in reading the below sections though!

Germany – The Great Nation

Circa (Till) 1914/1915: Germany was (as stated above), economically, one of the most prosperous nation, with a strong monetary policies in place and inflations in check, the nation had some of the biggest and most profitable business in Auto, Iron & Steel, mines industries. The all round prosperity reflected in a healthy GDP. The Industries had strong Workers Unions; ensuring rights of workers were protected. They had a strong service-going, middle class people who had expendable money, providing the necessary impetus to maintain buoyancy in the economy. Their cities were well maintained and they enjoyed the best of the facilities comparable to any other city around the world. Germans in general were considered to be one of the brightest human beings in the world and that reflected in the path breaking Inventions carried out by some of the brightest German scientists in the world. By and large the German civic society was a tolerant lot. Though Jew “bashing” was one of the favorite past time for everyone. It had not become an intrinsic part of the thought process in general (well, not till the aftermath of World War - I). Even then I guess it was more of a political creation than anything to do with how general public felt about Jews. Just to emphasize the point – in all my reading on German History till date – I have always felt that Jews amongst the Germans (in those times) were like Muslims amongst Indians today. In the sense, we may keep discussing about insecurity of Muslims in India or about how almost 90% of all terrorists ever making news are followers of Islam etc. Irrespective of this fact, I am sure if we meet any Muslim or if we have any Muslim as a friend – we never think twice before embracing him/her and so is the case vice-versa – isn’t it? There is no prejudice in our minds, I mean “we”, the “common man”. Exactly the same was the case with Jews in Germany. You will find records of thousands and thousands of Jew/German marriages in Germany – and there was never an iota of uneasiness in inter-personal relationship between Jews & Aryan Germans. It was because Jews were perceived to be of different race that they were talked about as a separate entity. In any case, coming back to Germany as a Nation – they had an active election commission, a well respected apolitical Judiciary, hordes of variety of news papers (which were largely independent). Arts, drama and cinema were the “adrenaline pumpers” for this generation and political satire was the most common form of comic plays/drama. Though ruled by authoritarian monarchy – there was enough freedom for the citizens of the country – Freedom of speech being primary amongst them. German defense forces were one of the strongest and most disciplined of that era. They had a strong naval presence and were feared by even the British, who were supposed to be the strongest Country of those times. In summary – Germany was considered to be one of the strongest European nations – both in terms of military and economy.

End of First World War

1915-1918 – Considering the growth of the nation in previous decades – the period of First World War was, however, devastating and chaotic. Germany was involved in one of the bloodiest wars ever seen by human kind. By the end of the war – all the positives drawn over last century on the economic and military terms were lost. Germany ended up losing heavily in this war. This part of history is well chronicled and there is nothing that needs to be added. However, what we have to understand is how this affected Germany as a nation. Powers of Germany, as a nation, were clipped. Humiliation came in form of many provisions of the “Treaty of Versailles”. Primary against them were curtailing and limiting the size of German Defense forces (to not more than 100,000), disallowing the armed forces from acquiring/possessing any form of heavy artillery, tanks & conscriptions. They could not have an Air Force; they could not build any heavy ships out of Germany and so on. But perhaps the most damning and most damaging was imposition of Article 231 of the treaty, which essentially mandated that Germany as a nation paid punitive financial reparations to the French and Belgians (for damages caused by the German Armed forces during their occupation of this country for 3+ years of the war). These reparations were to be paid in gold, stretching over a number of years in future. And though these all seemed to be fair in comparison to the kind of plans Germany had in the event of them wining over the Allied Forces – they were enough to bring about radical conspiracy theories to fore within Germany. Germans felt humiliated. They were not ready to believe that a superior race and force like them could end up losing. All the political parties looked for excuses. Charges and counter charges made the whole scene messier. It wouldn’t be wrong to say that Germany had “lost” its way. It did not know which direction to take after losing the war. And in lack of any credible “external” excuse for the loss in the war – they turned “inward” to look for reasons. This search for the enemy within ultimately led to larger acrimony and destruction of the civil society of Germany – as we shall see.

The After Effects - General

1919/1920 – 1933: The terrible loss in the world war led to tremendous amount of chaos in this great country. Germans rightfully felt humiliated. Being humbled was not a state they were accustomed to. They considered themselves as superior race and hence any form of defeat came as a big surprise and shock to them. Very quickly, aided and abetted by senior army officials themselves, a myth gained currency that the war was lost not because the enemies beyond borders were stronger than German Army. It was lost because of the enemies within – i.e. within the borders. This myth slowly firmed to finally convince the majority that the defeat was indeed because of conspiracy from within the country. That belief eventually changed the country forever – and how!

Even after the terrible loss in the war – Democratic institutions still managed to survive. They still had elected parliament – the Reichstag, The head of Reich Ministers and Civilian Government – The Reich Chancellor, the state Assembly, the central administrative offices, the bureaucracy etc. They continued to have an active election commission, judiciary and media/press. All these institutions remained intact even as Germany was disintegrating. The bureaucracy had by and large become subservient to the political masters and had become largely corrupt. Major political parties were inclined to the principles of socialism or communism or liberalism and nationalism. After the defeat there was a huge lack of trust quotient amongst people in these main political parties. There were new parties that mushroomed for short periods and fought elections. This led to a period of coalition governments ruling the Reichstag.

Each political party created its own youth wing – which were primarily filled with rowdies and hooligans. These youth wings/ fighter units (affiliated to one or the other political party) would do a work that was not possible for the “legal” political parties to achieve. These so called “storm troopers” (called by different names for different parties) were primarily responsible for implementing the policies of the party by tactically using cohesive or coercive methods. These thugs were almost always beyond the reach of police due to political patronage. Not that they cared a damn for law of land anyways. These quasi-legal groups (storm troopers) were hence both feared by the law-abiding people and equally loathed by the social groups for their corrupt ways. Administrative personnel and Police force though could not do much – they equally detested these groups.

Police and administration were anyways subservient to the politicians in power and paying money for transfers/promotions, accepting bribes etc were common corrupt practices amongst the administrative grades. As for the Defense services, they were largely apolitical. Except for the later part of 1920s and of course 1933-45 – they had remained true to the democratic structure of the constitution of Germany. Some even thought that they remained too aloof for the first few years after the loss in war.

The After Effects: Nazis Rise

As for the political scene - the period between 1919 -1933 was a period of total confusion. This period was a period of coalition governments. This led to incompetent governance. Parties pulling each other down to gain more powers (and ministries) in the government – were common. The Reich Chancellor – though a powerful person by position – could not make rightful policies due to probable clash of interests with some or the other coalition political partner. Lack of corrective policies led to unrest among the masses. There were strikes by Unions. There were economic issues that came to the fore in form of Inflation. In fact, inflation was at record time high till the mid of 1920s. So much so that a kilo of rye bread (staple diet of Germans) that would normally cost around 16 Marks had risen to 233 billion Marks by November 1923! Stock markets had taken a “big jump” to hell! A US$ would cost 160 Billion Marks! There were other problems too – like unemployment. Some lucky people who had a job had to actually take sacks with them to their offices on payment day – to bring their Monthly Salaries. The situation however started to improve after financial reforms were implemented and reparation payments were re-negotiated with French and Belgium in and around 1923/24.

Nazi Party, which was formed in 1919/20, started gaining popular support during this chaotic period of hyper inflation and unemployment. Thanks to large unemployment there were people who were ready to join any group that would provide them security and food. Nazi party, with its powerful financial supporters (thanks to Hitler’s magnetic influence and some internal support of key defense personnel), were providing all the incentives that these group of men needed. The membership was on the rise from the moment that fiery young man – Hitler – joined the Nazi ranks. Led by Hitler, Nazi party started having a racial overtone to its propaganda. Hitler always felt that only uncompromising and revolutionary changes can help attain Germany’s supremacy in the world. He viewed Jews with suspicion and believed them to be the source of all the problems in the country. Racial Hatred and superiority complex were central to his campaign speeches. Hitler spewed venom on Jews. He repeatedly vowed to throw them away in gallows if and when Nazis came to power. For all his blistering efforts the Nazis who got only 1-2% of votes in the election of 1924 – ended up having around 42-43% votes in the election of 1933. It is to be noted that there were 5 Reichstag elections held between 1924 and 1933 (1924, 38, 30, 32 & 1933)

Another important man in the Nazi cogwheel was Joseph Goebbels – the person in charge of propaganda. He used the press and media as an effective tool to spread every piece of information about Nazis – and Hitler in particular – in such a way that the masses came upon to embrace the Nazi movement. Hitler, to his credit, never exactly lied about his intentions. He was very clear on the path he saw for Germany to gain ascendancy all over again. He was viciously critical of anyone who did not tread his line of thought. As with such good orators and vitriolic leaders – he became extremely popular. He came across as a man who could bring the lost days of glory to the Germans. He promised the Germans that he will punish the “November Criminals” (people who had negotiated Germany’s case in “Treaty of Versailles” in November 1918). He promised to make Germany a military might all over again without bothering about restrictive provisions included in Treaty of Versailles. He promised to throw away the Jews from the country as they had “impure” blood and since Jews were some of the biggest industrialists in Germany - they were portrayed as the real suppressors of the working class. He promised the return of Germany in the list of Great powers and assured his voters that he will ensure the return of all the former German states (which had got independence as a result of Germany’s loss in WW-I).

With Hitler’s oratory skills and mesmerizing powers, with his powers to captivate his audience and with high scale propaganda run in his favor – he had become a cult figure. He was perceived to be the ultimate savior of Germany. He came across as the only “hope” of German nation. As for his radical views about Jews and the general aggressive assertions – these were thought to be just a way to gain popularity and no one ever took this with absolute seriousness. It is only when Hitler was made the Chancellor the first time in a coalition government in 1932 did the dreadfulness of the claims came to fore. People then realized that he had meant every word of what he had said in the preceding decade. But it was too late for anyone to do anything about it by then.

For all you people who thought Hitler “captured” Germany by using brutal force – this is indeed not true. He came by legitimate/democratic means, through elections held under the democratic/constitutional framework albeit using extremely complex political situations (existing at the time) to his advantage.

Establish Similarities: Some questions

Alright, to prove my point on similarities of Indian nation today with the state of Germany in the era described above – I would like to use the Q&A option. So here it is:

Do we have Coalition Governments in our country on mercy of smaller, splinter, insignificant, regional parties? Do we have Socialist, Liberal, Centrist, Communist and Nationalist parties calling the shots in most of the policy making forums? Are majority of our politicians corrupt, disgraceful and disloyal? Do we have leaders who have been convicted, have cases pending against them – but still becoming Ministers? Do we have leaders who spread hatred against certain sects of people? Do we have social/racial/religious divide amongst people that the politicians exploit? Do we have bureaucracy which is corrupt from top to bottom? Is Police force corrupt in our country? Do we have political parties who have youth wings that are perceived to be immune to the law of land in whatever they do? Do we believe that India should become a regional and a world power?

Is your answer YES to most of the above? If not – I think I probably live in Mars!

Again, is it wrong to say that we have strong rightist/nationalist parties that spread racial/religious hatred? No. Remember groups/parties like BJP, Shiv Sena, MNS, Muslim League, Simi, RSS, Bajrang Dal, VHP etc etc? To give you another example of the politician’s apathy – do you remember the excessive use of term “NATIONAL SECURITY” that NDA government used for each and every crisis that they were asked to answer and debate about in their time in power? Do you think there are no National security issues now? How many times have you heard this term in the last 4 years? Compare this with the common use of this term during NDA rule. Don’t you think it was a clear case of having pathetic attitude of the principal parties of NDA towards the nation and its people? Don’t you think they thought they could get away with giving any rubbish to the people and continue to rule forever? In fact, Germans similarly used Jews as pawns in this game. They too used the term “National Security” almost for every action that they took after coming to power. Ok – how many of you think that supposing that these “Nationalist” parties get absolute majority in parliament – they would never be able to throw away the religious/racial minorities from the country? Hypothetical? Well, thank you. But Germans felt the same about Nazis. How wrong were they proved eventually viz-a-viz German Jews! Do you think our Democratic framework is strong enough to sustain any chance of any Government using exceptional constitutional powers to ruin the Indian Democracy? Hypothetical again? Well, good. Germans felt exactly the same till 1932/33. Did they pay for their folly? They sure did. Should we learn from them? No? Ok, one more of the kind – Do we have an independent Court of Law in this country, which is seen to be bipartisan and punishes the culprits/criminals without prejudice? Oops – caught ya! The higher political “entities” never get punished – now do they? Count on your fingers and give me a list of high profile politicians who were eventually punished. For once you will regret having so many fingers! Lo behold – even Hitler was caught in one of the most violent protests during 1924-25. He was leading a march of thousands of people to Berlin with a plan to capture the Reichstag with a “bang”. There were police firings and many lost lives. Hitler was let off by the court (under pressure from the political groups) with “minor sanctions” put on his activities. Hmmm… remember they also had a respectable Judiciary. But we are better – isn’t it? Yeah – as I said – I perhaps live on Mars.

I should perhaps put questions in some other form. Ok - Has our constitution/law of land stopped political wings/hooligans from disrupting peace, destroying property during those awful numbers of Bandhs/strikes? No? Really? Well that’s nice – neither could Germany’s constitution/law stop the various storm troopers from creating havoc whenever needed. Our constitution allows freedom of expression and freedom of following any religious faith as we deem fit. A wonderful statement to make – isn’t it? Good. May I remind you about all those suppressions of followers of Islam and Christianity in this Country? Is any Muslim or a Christian reading this? Do you and your friends feel comfortable seeing these nationalist/rightist parties gaining power? These “intolerant” followers of “tolerant” Hindu religion breathe fire and if we have not been able to see the bad blood – we perhaps have gone “color” blind. Just for the records, Germany’s constitution too provided freedom to follow any religion and faith. Equal rights were bestowed on every German irrespective of the race they belonged to. That became useless when Hitler went on a rampage against anything connected to the word “Jew”

I can keep asking and responding to each of these questions. My intention is not to demean any faith or belief – this is purely to establish those uncanny similarities between the situation we find ourselves in today and what Germany was in that era.

Establish Similarities: Citizen and Government

How many of you think it is impossible for someone like Hitler taking over reins of this country sometime soon? If most of you think it is NOT POSSIBLE for a maniac like Hitler to ever get to the top of the Government in India – well you have lost the plot by now. If that seems harsh – let me tone down – perhaps you have lost powers to look beyond the most obvious. I can’t mellow down any further.

Let me ask you a few more obvious questions then – how many of you think YOU as a citizen of this country decide which party makes government, indeed what path an elected government should take in matters of making laws, making foreign policy, devising Economic/commerce strategies, making important policies which affect our lives? How many of you think you have any control over who will be the Prime Minister, who will be your Home Minister? Indeed do you have any control over “tainted” leaders being given cabinet posts?

Alright, how many of you really feel the laws of the country are fair to all? How many of you think you could control rioting that happened in Gujarat, the deplorable burning of train at Godhra? Whose job is it really? Politicians (?), Administration? Ok, what about any control over the elected leaders taking out “peaceful” demonstrations where the young party “workers” go on a destruction drive of public property? How many of you think an administration will one day punish those responsible for demolishing Babri Masjid, what about punishing people responsible for riots in Mumbai thereafter and indeed the communist cadres responsible for what happened at Nandigram or at Kunnur? Ok, how many of you think it is fine to allow Naxalites killing, looting and commit arson at will in almost all the major states of this country? Indeed, how many of you think they will ever be brought to justice and punished for all the heinous activities?

Troubled? Now c’mon – you can’t think this is just a passing phase? The above incidents are just a few from my memory of last 15-20 years! Naxalism is not an overnight phenomenon. Riots in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Agra etc are not one off cases. Burning of Train at Godhra was not as spontaneous as it may look. The atrocity brought upon by communist forces within their own state in West Bengal and in Kerala was not spontaneous by any means. Do you really think this is all a phenomenon that will just pass by as you sleep? No Sir. I for one do not think so. And I don’t think these bastards would ever have committed such crimes if there was no political patronage available to everyone of them. With these violent versions of politics slowly becoming routine, I don’t see what this country lacks in potential to bring our own version of maniac to the fore, someone, who will be looked upon by these ruling crooks as their mentor and protector. Not that he will have to do anything great to achieve supremacy. Take an example of Narendra Modi or Mayawati or Laloo Yadav or even CM of West Bengal, Budhadeb. After all, however hard the BJP’s propagandist group may want us to believe – someone like Modi cannot be as good as he is made out to be. C’mon – we are smarter than that (I shall not get into the details about Modi here. That will be taken in another forum)? He may not end up being the Indian Hitler that I see coming. But he and his success in elections after elections do firm my opinion that there is a person lurking in the shadows of power – waiting for his chance. And as in the case of Hitler – this pervert will (in all probability) be from amongst us. He will not just come suddenly and force his way to lead the Government. And for all who think you will not vote a party with such people to come to power – it is worth noting that 56-58% of the voters had voted against Nazis even in the peak of Nazi party popularity. It did not stop the coalition group of parties from naming Hitler as a “compromise” candidate. This is not to say that Hitler lacked in popularity in the country. He at that time was by far the most popular politician. But his party did not have numbers to force the coalition into naming him for the post of Chancellor. But he did become one – didn’t he? Are we not used to such “compromise” candidates and coalition governments in our country? Doesn’t it mean that someday we will be forced to look up to someone like a greater fanatic than Narendra Modi, or a sadist like Mayawati heading a government? After all if we can serve incompetents like Deve Gawda, IK Gujaral as Prime Ministers and then VP Singh (to some extent) – there is no reason to believe that a coalition government cannot throw up almost anyone to the coveted post. We never had a say in that respect in this country at least in last 20 years. To drive in the point – did we know that VP Singh would be the Prime Ministerial candidate in 1987 or Chandrasekhar in 1990 or PV Narsimha Rao in 1991 or for that matter, Deve Gawda, IK Gujaral and even Atal Behari Vajpayee, in his first tenure? Did we then know that Manmohan Singh will be the Prime Minister in the current Government? All these have been decided upon ONLY after the elections and only after we had voted. So there is every reason to believe that circumstances could force a coalition Government to name an extremist to the post – as a compromise formula? With so many extremist/criminal elements getting elected I can’t see why this cannot happen in India. Is it now difficult to imagine how Hitler came to power? Are we not in a similar position here?

Another point that you may want to make is, even if someone cruel did come in to be made the Head of the Government – there are enough checks and balances entrenched in our constitution, our law, to prevent someone from misusing it to his/her needs. But you have to look at how Hitler managed it and you will know why it all looks probable even here. We all know Hitler was appointed as Chancellor by President Hindenburg in 1932. Chancellor with his cabinet was constitutionally answerable to the President as is more or less the case with Indian Constitution. Though Hindenburg was a powerful President to start with – the post of President had eventually become a source of Rubber stamps meant to stamp approvals on policies made by the Chancellor or his cabinet. This is very similar to the constitutional post of Indian Presidents. Anyways, if you were to read history carefully – you will find that Hitler and his trusted lieutenants like Himmler, Goebbels etc took the opportunity in November of 1932 to take total control of the country – albeit using democratic provisions of constitution. Surprisingly, it took them less than 3 months to dismantle any and every institution that they believed would be detrimental to their success in the elections that they wanted to have in March 1933.

A brief of the methods used would be helpful here for better understanding.

Establish Similarities: Looking back at Hitler’s regime

In first 3 months (after Hitler first became Chancellor), Hitler started by forcibly disbanding all the Youth wings of Socialists, Rightist, Centrists & Communist parties. This was done in the name of “National Security” and also in the façade of maintaining law and order. He almost demolished the communist party (the most powerful enemy of Nazis) – arresting most of their leaders and sending them to ghettos built hurriedly around most of the major cities. Hitler got his Storm Troopers (SS) recognized as a pseudo-police with official powers. He let them loose on the people who were perceived to be anti-Nazis. This was done discreetly and sometimes overtly – especially in cases which would bring good propaganda. This period saw many “political” killings, too many “political” arrests in the name of “National Security” and perceived “threat to the nation” from those arrested. After the Reichstag was burnt (in Feb 1933), Hitler took the opportunity to take “official decree” powers (similar to “Emergency powers” in our Constitution) from a helpless President. This decree would allow him to override any constitutional provision (if need be). He now directly and openly started targeting other political parties and either made them an ally or put their leaders in ghettos. Government used the Presidential Decree to rake up National Security matters and seized all the funds of other political units, close almost all the offices of various political parties (in the name of them spreading anti-national ethos). He debarred many members from the Parliament for opposing his policies (and calling them anti-nationals). National press was brought under control. Most of the blossoming Newspapers were either brought in line with Nazis way of thinking or were simply forced to shut down.

Once he had done the above in first 2-3 months after he became Chancellor in November, 1932 – he called for another general election in Germany. Nazis were sure that they would now get a simple majority in the elections. Though the election was not free and fair (as we can imagine) – the Nazi party still could not get more than 41-42% of votes. This, the Nazis realized, was the maximum they would ever get. With all the major political figures in Ghettos and many in exile – the party still could not manage a simple majority in the Parliament. Though Nazis came on top as the single largest party and Hitler continued as the Chancellor. Remember the point I was making (in one of my earlier articles) about how the view of majority is not the necessary parameter for a party to form government? It was clearly witnessed in Germany. In what would be remembered as the most cruel phase of German history – the Nazis started targeting arts & cultural society, sports, bureaucracy and people in general. The targets were either Jews (who were some of the globally respected musicians, painters, sports personnel) or anyone with inclination to other political parties. They ensured that no one would buy anything from an outlet/shop owned by Jews. Anyone who dared – would be harassed and embarrassed in front of everyone. Some arrested in worst cases. They started forcing Jews to close down the shops/businesses. SS troops started taking over Worker Unions by either dissolving them by force or removing the leaders who were not ready to tow the line. These were replaced by Nazi sympathizers. All the University Chancellors were changed, to replace them with Nazi Sympathizers. All the teachers who were independent minded and who propagated more freedom in spreading education and knowledge (in contradiction to what Nazis believed) were either removed from service or were jailed for “anti national” activity. All the government officials were “unofficially” expected to “willingly” join Nazi party. In 3-6 months after the final elections (March, 1933) – most of the Press, Political parties, bureaucrats, major associations, labor unions, social groups, pubs, clubs, drama companies, Musical groups, heads of education institutions were either put behind bars/ killed or institutions closed down. Only the ones that agreed to blind submission to Hitler’s and his minister’s directives were allowed to retain their places. All this was being done in front of the same public who had voted for them or was a part of the process that led to Nazis gaining power. As stated earlier – this was the same set of people who helped Germany grow into an economic powerhouse with a forward looking society. Germans in general felt helpless. They were now able to see the draconian intentions of this pocket sized individual they all so dearly loved. But they just could do nothing, absolutely nothing. That’s not a good feeling to have as a citizen. Trust me.

To summarize, it took Hitler’s Nazi party just 6-8 months to take almost total control of the institutions of the country. This was by no means a small achievement. Especially when we realize that everything was done in front of public without them realizing that their ground was being eroded in front of their own eyes. It was thanks also to some impressive “positive propaganda” movement led by that great man Goebbels. As he was to observe much latter in 1939: “Tell a lie a hundred times and it becomes the truth”. That is today one of the principal philosophies of propaganda.

Coming back to the similarities – how many of you still feel this is not possible in India? If you still think it is not possible in India and that none of the above is even remotely imaginable here and is moreover too hypothetical. I withdraw my case. But if by now you do feel we are in close resemblance with the German state of those times – I say we need to remain cautious. Instead of blindly believing what you see in those cleverly documented propaganda drives – you should use your own brains. I cannot expect all of you to take to streets and protest – we are too polished for such acts – but we should spread the word of caution around and educate the people around us of the dangers of their voting for crooks/maniacs/fanatics/extremists.

Conclusion

In all fairness and after having read whatever part of history of Germany that I could – I do feel, if ever there was a country that was similar to Germany of 1900 to 1933 – it is India. Given that we are increasingly witnessing the cruel side of human kind every given day, given that politics in this country has touched an all time low, given that majority of masses have lost hope on the political entities of this nation and given that there is no light seen at the end of this dark tunnel - I have had this sinking feeling that we may somehow be responsible for propping our own nemesis, our very own Hitler to the high seat someday. On current state of evidence - we may not even require a world war to start the process of ruin.

For all who believe in someone called God – do pray. As what I see is perhaps not a doomsday scenario – but it definitely is bloodcurdling to think of.  India is shaking Friends; tremors are felt across all walks of life. Is this the beginning of the end of the dream-run? Or is it just a passing phase? No easy answers really. But when the dogs start jumping, snakes pull themselves out of their adobe – it is time we humans acted, lest we end up sitting on the ruins of our beloveds in the maze of hindsight knowledge.

Despite all my assertions above – I do hope I am proved wrong and that all these indeed turn out to be supremely hypothetical, coming out of infected imagination of a mad man. For, being proved wrong “in this case too” would be sweet.

Here is some interesting thought about India from Mark Twain: “So far as I am able to judge, nothing has been left undone, either by man or nature, to make India the most extraordinary country that the sun visits on his rounds. Nothing seems to have been forgotten, nothing overlooked. India is the cradle of the human race, the birthplace of human speech, the mother of history, the grandmother of legend, and the great grand mother of tradition. Our most valuable and most astrictive materials in the history of man are treasured up in India only! In religion, India is the only millionaire - the “One” land that all men desire to see, and having seen once, by even a glimpse, would not give that glimpse for all the shows of all the rest of the globe combined.”

Lets’ keep it that way.

Do think about it.

Its Montoo..

17^th Apr 2008’